if the fed does not ease today (this is mostly a psychological play), i think we will see the curve go closer to inverting. the buck will go up, commodities will stop their runup, the dow will drop.
if the fed eases (this is what the markets expect), then it will give more support to the dow, and gold. and the curve will be less likely to invert soon.
trump wants the fed to ease. he does not want an inverted curve. he does not want the country to enter recession as we head into election next year.
remember, when the market is crashing (and we are heading into recession), then there is a very high probability that we will switch the party in the whitehouse. this corelation has worked maybe 95% of the time over the last 130 years.
of course, ... i have been wrong many times before.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/fed-cuts-rates-by-a-quarter-point.html
Key Points
The Fed isn't the most truthful entity in the world
Remember Greenspan and his gobbly gook
Nobody had a clue what he was saying
So today the Fed said why they cut rates
Now do you really believe they say all they think
Yes what they said is true
I think it is what they did NOT say that we need to think about
For now I can't argue what the Fed said
After all the Fed has said they need to keep the powder dry [so to speak] I am afraid they have precious little powder to spare
But I am strongly of the belief that more, of something, will come. It has to or we are pooched
I just don't know what or when it is coming and how it will affect us
I laid out some possibilities
Maybe it happens almost as I said
Maybe not. I don't profess to know everything
I suppose we will have to wait
I am sure we will have to wait until after 2020, for very much more to happen, so this post will most likely be long forgotten
Personally I am geared up for inflation, but the Fed could surprise me. I sure hope they surprise me, and congress and the Fed act long before it is too late
I am not holding my breath
i was way off today. buck went up. gold down. stocks down.
the fed made one move, but did not say that they would make more cuts.
Apparently the Fed is realizing that there is indeed trouble in Paradise?
The main message from the Fed was their confidence in the strength of the current economy, hence their reluctance to ease monetary policy further.
The main message that I see is that all the key players in our system are simple actors reading a script which they have been givin. Kind of like watching a really good movie on TV. They are actors and that is all. I think the BEST line I ever heard was when Jim Parsons(He plays Sheldon on the Big Band Theory) was doing an interview on late night TV.
He said he was eating dinner out and some Physics students came up to him and ask him some Physics questions. He looked at them and said, " I am an actor. I went to college for Drama. I know knowing about physics. What don't you understand about that statement?"
Hows that [put doing? And when was the SnP supposed to hit 1800 again?