KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 1, 2019
7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -28%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 507.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 145.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 659.7K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 206K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1676000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 50.6)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 51.9; previous 51.7)
Prices Idx (previous 47.9)
Employment Idx (previous 54.5)
Inventories (previous 49.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 50.0)
Production Idx (previous 54.1)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.1%; previous -0.8%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. June Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2569B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +36B)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.4)
4:00 PM ET. July Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 2, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +166K; previous +224K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.90)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.22%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.1%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +33K)
Private Payroll (previous +191K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.7B; previous -55.52B)
Exports (USD) (previous 210.64B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Imports (USD) (previous 266.16B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
9:45 AM ET. July ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 50.0)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -0.7%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 98.4; previous 98.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 89.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.9)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sell off, which appears to have been somewhat overdone. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's sharp decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7677.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7940.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8051.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7677.34. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at 7609.50.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's huge loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's decline, the July 1st gap crossing at 2953.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3000.89 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3029.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 1st gapcrossing at 2953.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2930.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 157-02 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 153-23 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 157-02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 153-23. Second support is June's low crossing at 152-27.
September T-notes were lower in overnight trading as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 128.140 is the next upside target. Closes below July's low crossing at 126.230 would renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.055. Second support is July's low crossing at 126.230.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 61.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 58.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 61.02. First support is the July 18th low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.
September heating oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 202.40 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 190.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 202.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 214.41. First support is the July 18th low crossing at 185.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.
September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low the reaction high crossing at 191.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 179.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 191.58. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 197.13. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 178.81. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 174.48.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.289 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.289. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.333. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.101. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.20.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.42. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.06. First support is the overnight low crossing at 110.70. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2452 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2365. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2452 is the next upside target. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2112. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0168 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0024. Second resistance is the July 22nd high crossing at 1.0251. First support is June's low crossing at 1.0066. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.36. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.71. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.43.
The September Japanese Yen was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at 0.0937, the 62% retracement level of the April-June-rally crossing at 0.0916 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0928 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0937. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-June-rally crossing at 0.0916. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-June-rally crossing at 0.0911.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was sharply lower overnight following Wednesday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1407.80 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1384.40. If October resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1460.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1407.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1384.40.
September silver was sharply lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.907 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 16.866 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.680. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 16.866. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.907. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.355.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 261.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 269.91 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 280.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 285.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at 265.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 261.20.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. Benign weather forecast for much of the corn belt, weak export and ethanol demand along with seasonal weakness are off setting concerns over lower planted corn acres and expectations for lower yields. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 4.05 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.64 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 4.05 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.91.
December wheat was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.89 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.89 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 1/2-cents at 4.40 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the May 16th low crossing at 4.33 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is the May 16th low crossing at 4.33 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.59 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.32 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off June's high.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.03 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends its decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 302.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 323.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 304.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 302.70.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 27.87 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.52. First support is July's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $3.00 at $71.00.
October hogs closed limit down on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 67.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 81.28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 84.59. First support is today's low crossing at 71.00. Second support July's low crossing at 67.43.
October cattle closed down $1.43 at 107.65.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.22. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.33 at $142.55.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.88. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 9.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 23.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.35 would open the door for additional short-term gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
December cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.53 are needed to open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at 68.35. If December renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Tons of rain in the week 2 forecast continues without major heat.
Export sales were awful.