Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 11:50 a.m.

Awesome August 3rd!  Do something to make somebody feel wonderful today! Congrats to the Integral Heart Family on raising massive funds for their "wonderful" children: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34791/

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.


We continue to trade: "Rain makes Grain"(hot would be bullish, but we don't have long lasting heat).

Lack of heat is especially bearish for pollinating and early filling for corn.........but the central and eastern Cornbelt have dried out and need rains.

Corn ratings  for beans stayed the same and were +1% for corn........pretty bearish in July. We broke thru some major chart support. Crop ratings may drop a bit next Monday from the dry spots getting drier this week but huge rains will follow next week.

Weather models took out a chunk of heat on Thursday and continue that way on Saturday.........bearish NG.  The operational European model took out all the rains thru day 10 on Friday which was bullish grains but was an outlier.

Other models still have huge rains in week 2 which would be bearish for grains but rain amounts have been decreasing and being pushed farther out as drying continues in parts of the Cornbelt in the near term. The pattern in week 2 is still favorable for rains to increase.



Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 


 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





US Weather Current Temperatures Map


US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.


   Hot West!

Not far from average East.


   

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Hot West.  Around average elsewhere but cooling Midwest to NorthEast late in this period.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below


Warmest vs average West.......... a bit below Midwest late in the period, as we depart from the hottest time of year seasonally based on climatological/historical averages.

But there will be plenty of heat left this Summer.




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Cold fronts dropping south, how much rain will they yield?

US model has decent amounts in some spots. European model is drier.

Not enough to eliminate moisture shortages in the dry areas........until after this period.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Rains may pick up next week but amounts are questionable in the dry central/eastern belt locations. Still looks wet in week 2, however. 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126








http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.


  Elevated risk in a few spots Southcentral US for one more day.


   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

 

 

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk

Slight risk with the cold front  dropping south next week. 

       

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:27 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


Pleasant air with low humidity in the Ohio Valley, a bit of moisture returning in the Weastern Cornbelt/Upper Midwest.


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:31 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Parts of Iowa has dried out, along with parts of the central and eastern belt, especially N/C Illinois.

Rains don't look robust until week 2. With mostly scattered coverage next week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#


      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:31 p.m.
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Currently, there is now some drought in the  main Cornbelt/Midwest. There is still drought in the Southeast. 

Previous: Short term dryness is becoming an issue is some spots that might result in a bit of long term drought (flash drought)  later this Summer if rains don't pick up in the extended period.

Latest: The above has occurred, note the light yellow shades below on the just updated Drought monitor in IA, IL and IN!

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


                     

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:36 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:


Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!


Last Saturday: Flattened ridge West/trough east/more zonal with a new features showing up on this model..........upper level ridge building in the Western Atlantic to Florida.

Sunday: Reverting back closer to Friday's solution with the upper level ridge in the Rockies and downstream trough.

Monday: Looks more like Saturday again. Flattened ridge that shifts east towards the Plains, less troughing in the east(not as cool) and the Upper level ridge building again in the West Atlantic.  This is warmer at the end of week 2 than yesterday. 

Tuesday: Similar to Monday. Could be a pretty big temp gradient(with cool air north) that serves to focus big rains later in week 2. along with an active jet stream.

Wednesday: Heat ridge in the Southern Plains is building a bit more.  Some solutions have a dome building in across the South, others keep the upper level trough in the Midwest to Northeast. 

Thursday: More solutions going for the heat ridge/dome across the south. Trough in the north is weaker. Looks like high heat in the south, cool in the northern tier and tons of rain in between. This pattern can be favorable for excessive rain events around the periphery of the heat ridge.

Friday:  Heat ridge in the south still impressive late week 2. Trough West and jet stream over the top of the heat ridge 

Saturday: Heat ridge not as impressive. A bit more troughing and cooling Midwest to Northeast. 

12z Saturday update: Heat ridge MUCH more impressive!

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 18, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:39 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:


Last Friday: Ridge West, trough east. Cooool. How much rain?

Saturday: Ridge West/trough East in week 2 is dominant on this model with potential for some changes late week 2.

Sunday: Is the ridge out West going to shift eastward late in week 2?

Monday: More indications that the ridge in the West could shift farther northeast, along with some of the heat. Trough in the east is notably weaker which means not as cool in the Midwest/East.

Tuesday: Active/wet jet stream coming over the top of the heat ridge. Significant troughing in the Northeast to deliver cool air down into the Midwest.

Wednesday: Half of the solutions on this model build a major heat ridge across the country that pushes the upper level trough influence farther north.

Thursday: Heat ridge anywhere from the Rockies to points southeast. Troughing along the Canadian border to the Northeast will usher in some cooler air there. Big temperature gradient and heavy rains.

Friday: Heat ridge somewhere from the S.Rockies to the Southeast US.  Active flow over the top?

Saturday: Wide spread in solutions.  12Z update, huge change to heat ridge building across the country.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:41 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.


Last Friday: Full latitude positive anomaly West, all the way to Alaska, coupled nicely with negative anomaly downstream centered in Southeast Canada to Northeast US. Heat West, cool Midwest/East.

Saturday: Anomalies have a bit less magnitude today but are still positive/hot west, negative/cool east.

Sunday: Weak positive west and new positive height anomaly in the deep South. Negative in eastern Canada. Cool in the period before this but things might change late in week 2.

Monday: Trend continues to weaken the positive anomaly in the West and shift it eastward/southeast, along with some of the heat. In combination with the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada weakening, which lessens the amount of cool air in the Midwest/East. 

Tuesday: Center of the positive anomaly has shifted into northwest Canada to Siberia with a much deeper negative anomaly in southeast Canada which is a cooler solution, despite slightly elevated heights in the Plains. The cooler air coming south will set up a boundary that is the focus for increasing week 2 rains.

Wednesday: BIG CHANGE! Now we have modest positive anomalies across most of the USA and a negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This is MUCH warmer than the guidance for some time. The heat will spread east with this solution. 

Thursday: Slight positive anomalies except for weaknesses in the Pac NW and SE Canada, so some cooler air along the border states. 

Friday: Modest, slightly positive anomalies across the US late week 2. Negative anomaly far Eastern Canada might be a source of some cooler air along the northern tier.

Saturday: New negative anomaly center(weak) west of the Hudson Bay in Canada. Modest positive anomalies over much of the US.  Lot's of uncertainty.  12Z update, positive anomaly across the US greatly amplified on this run at the end of 2 weeks. Speculation: A strong jet stream coming zonally underneath the new negative anomaly west of the Hudson Bay has the potential to greatly build a heat ridge to the south of it and cause it to spread across much of the United States, especially the southern half.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:44 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.



Last Friday: AO negative, increasing late. NAO very negative for Summer.....strong cooling influence.......increasing a bit late. PNA continues to bounce around favoring positive with the ridge out West.

Saturday: AO negative. NAO very negative for Summer and very cool in week 2 but increasing late. PNA decreasing from positive. Potential for some changes late week 2?

Sunday: AO a shade negative. NAO rebounds from solidly negative(cool) towards zero at the end of 2 weeks.......pattern change?  PNA climbs from negative in week 2 to near 0 at the end.

Monday: AO  a bit negative. NAO is very negative and cool until late week 2, when it surges back to near 0, if realized, this is signaling a pattern change to warmer in the 2nd week of August. PNA goes from slight negative to positive. 

Tuesday: AO still a bit negative. NAO is very negative but recovering/increasing during week 2. PNA around 0.

Wednesday: AO near 0. NAO, going from strongly negative to 0 with the pattern change and trough in the East filling in, allowing heat in the West to spread eastward. This is potentially a big deal for temperatures.  PNA around 0.

Thursday: AO and PNA near 0. The NAO is on the move. Rebounding from solidly negative to near 0 at the end of 2 weeks......less favorable for cool air delivery.

Friday: AO around 0. PNA increases to positive. NAO goes from quite negative, bouncing back to 0 as week 2 progresses, so cool influence until late in week 2. 

Saturday: AO near 0. NAO goes from very negative for his time of year to just above 0, possible warming(uncertainty). PNA gets pretty positive, which is favorable for ridging west and cooling downstream.........mixed signals. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:49 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 




Last Friday. Hot West, cooler east. Dryish 6-10 day, uncertain but more rains 8-14 day.

Saturday: Same as Friday on these products.

Sunday: Pattern change late week 2? That would not show up on these products yet.

Monday: Heat may start spreading northeast late in week 2 and along with it, an increase in rains.

Tuesday: Maybe it won't be able to warm up that much in week 2 in the north, with a strong thermal boundary that serves to focus active rain systems, along and to the south of the coolest air.

Wednesday: Extended maps hotter today. Not sure how much will be dialed in by NWS this afternoon. Rains pick up, along with temps with some uncertainty on precip.

Thursday: HOT South! Cool north.  Heavy rains in between!

Friday: Hot South and very cool north. A zone of heavy rains in between.

Saturday: Probably similar to the last few extended NWS outlooks......hot reds south, cool blues north, lots

of green rains in between.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:49 p.m.
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NWS August forecast:



Revised OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: July 31, 2019
 
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:50 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

Yesterday CPC said a cool August is likely across the U.S. #Corn Belt. But those forecasts don't always pan out. This was the July outlook. Called for a slightly cool bias in the Corn Belt. Oops. The I-states & Kansas were also dry - not what the outlook had suggested. #agwx

ImageImageImage

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:50 p.m.
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The low skill outlook for the 2nd half of August.


Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 12:51 p.m.
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    Re: Weather Wednesday            

                                          By cliff-e - July 31, 2019, 11:13 a.m.            

            

My Grandpa used to say we needed to have "Roasting" ears by his birthday August 10 in order to have good corn...the best of the corn in our locale in W. Mn. is barely in the "Blister" stage now...a lot of corn has yet to tassle and there's a field or 2 that's not yet waist high. Even the most advanced fields are highly uneven in height due to "mudding" the crop in whilst skimping on fertility and there's been tremendous de-nitrification due to excessive rainfall. Soybean fields are highly variable... all were planted late not allowing enough time for root nodulation required for adequate flower and pollination and none are yet knee high. The numerous PP fields were/are badly weed infested before weed control could be done due to extreme wetness...some have just now opted to plant cover crops with no hope of harvesting even poor quality forage from them. Time is marching on quickly towards the 1st killing frost...that is a certainty.


Thanks Cliff!

metmike

By metmike - Aug. 3, 2019, 7 p.m.
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Updated above:

 12Z update, positive anomaly across the US greatly amplified on this run at the end of 2 weeks. Speculation: A strong jet stream coming zonally underneath the new negative anomaly west of the Hudson Bay has the potential to greatly build a heat ridge to the south of it and cause it to spread across much of the United States, especially the southern half.

By bowyer - Aug. 3, 2019, 10:52 p.m.
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We have had one shower of 2/10 inch since June 24. That's 41 days straight with basically no rain. West central Illinois.  We had 11.15 inches in May