12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri ensemble CDD comparisons:
GEFS -2; EPS +2
So, overall a wash/no major changes
Thanks for getting us started with the new week Larry!
That's the way that it looks to me.
The 12z models on Saturday all looked much hotter later in week 2 and I thought they were picking up on a big pattern change towards more heat for the 2nd half of August but they backed off of that a bit since then, though this is the way that I'm leaning with moderate confidence, so I would say the pattern has the potential to be more bullish.
We did rally after the close on Friday on some hotter 12z guidance. Since we didn't add to that heat and we need alot of heat to go higher with extremely bearish fundamantals, we could start lower than the 4pm close on Friday.
What do you think?
Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, has just passed its seasonal peak(based on historical averages). It's the most important market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days)
Used to be that seasonals in August were positive from hurricane premium but that doesn't appear to be the case anymore. We had a nice bounce in July from the heat wave, then dropped to new contract lows on Friday but bounced back above those lows with some added heat Friday.
Weather Sunday:(will the 2nd half of August turn hotter?)_
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36026/
Weather Monday: 2nd half of August could turn hotter but the heat is confined to the south until then.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36119/
Weather Tuesday: Clearly hotter as we start the 2nd half of August!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36189/
Weather Wednesday: Still pretty hot in week 2 but how long will it last? (bearish fundamentals)Market struggling with the bullish forecast.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36274/
Weather Thursday: Even more heat but some mid day models back off on the intensity. Dryness and issue for grains with week 2 having heat too after the late week 1 rains.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36397/
Weather Friday: Still hot and less rain
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36481/
Weather Saturday: Still hot but rains next week just jumped up on the Saturday updated guidance:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36554/
Weather Sunday: Still pretty hot with the last run hottest.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36619/
Weather Monday: Still pretty hot week 2.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36705/
Weather Wednesday: European model MUCH hotter very early morning caused ng to spike higher. US model NOT showing that, has us backing off.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36833/
Weather Thursday: Hotter
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36928/
Weather Friday: Much cooler!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36993/
Weather Saturday: Holding on to some of the cooler changes.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37057/
Weather Sunday: Adding to cooler changes.
Previous weekly discussions on natural gas here(dang, this is getting to be a very long list)
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35573/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35104/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34604/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34053/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33668/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33132/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32675/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32177/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31521/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31099/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30641/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30007/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29419/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28858/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28351/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27780/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27305/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26861/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26506/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26105/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25678/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/
EIA last Thursday +65 BCF Bearish!
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/26/18) | 5-year average (2014-18) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 07/26/19 | 07/19/19 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 597 | 575 | 22 | 22 | 548 | 8.9 | 625 | -4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 677 | 650 | 27 | 27 | 548 | 23.5 | 677 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 156 | 151 | 5 | 5 | 146 | 6.8 | 174 | -10.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 270 | 271 | -1 | -1 | 250 | 8.0 | 294 | -8.2 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 934 | 921 | 13 | 13 | 809 | 15.5 | 987 | -5.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 226 | 229 | -3 | -3 | 207 | 9.2 | 268 | -15.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 708 | 692 | 16 | 16 | 602 | 17.6 | 719 | -1.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,634 | 2,569 | 65 | 65 | 2,300 | 14.5 | 2,757 | -4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. |
Working gas in storage was 2,634 Bcf as of Friday, July 26, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 334 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 123 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,757 Bcf. At 2,634 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
+65 BCF vs 57 BCF forecast
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 01, 2019 | 10:30 | 65B | 57B | 36B | |
Jul 25, 2019 | 10:30 | 36B | 37B | 62B | |
Jul 18, 2019 | 10:30 | 62B | 65B | 81B | |
Jul 11, 2019 | 10:30 | 81B | 73B | 89B | |
Jul 03, 2019 | 12:00 | 89B | 85B | 98B | |
Jun 27, 2019 | 10:30 | 98B | 101B | 115B |
Here is the temperature map for the 7 days, ending the previous Friday that went into last Thursday's EIA report.
MUCH cooler than the previous week, so as predicted the injection was MUCH higher.
These were the 7 day temps, ending last Friday that will go into the report this Thursday. Cool Midwest/South vs average, very warm Northeast/West. Similar to the previous week for locations of the anomalies:
The dominant imposing factor for prices this year has been massive, record large injections that have increased supplies faster than any time in history and crushed prices.
The first 2 weeks of July, however featured increasing heat in the extended forecasts, so natural got a huge lift. Cooler forecasts after that has sent prices crashing back to life of contract lows set on June 20th, just above 2.1 for the September contract, which is now the front month. We broke thru that last Friday, after the bearish EIA report on Thursday but closed above it with some added heat to the forecasts Friday morning/afternoon.
The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts thru the rest of the Summer. Widespread, sustained heat needs to return to the forecast if prices have hope of rebounding again.
Cash prices have been below $2, so it's possible that we can still go lower than this, especially if we are cool in August.
NG 7 days
Natural gas 3 months below
This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.
This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June. This years extraordinary, contra seasonal plunge lower has been the result of super duper, huge, injections...records by a wide margin........ that have provided numerous bearish surprises and crushed prices. Cash prices during this period have been below $2 at times. We are now in a time frame when ng seasonals become very negative, from mid/late June thru August.
Widespread, intense heat in the forecast gave us an early July, contra seasonal bounce that vanished quickly when the forecasts turned cooler.
We need August to bring widespread heat to go higher with confidence.
Looks like a lower open as speculated earlier.
Wow, ng is nuts.
It was a much lower open and in fact we made a new contract low of 2.067 in the first few seconds of trading.
Anybody long from the warmer 12z Friday models just wished they weren't long.........even though the forecast has not changed much.
This seems like a great place to get long if the maps shift to much hotter, like they looked on Saturday morning.
From natural gas intelligence Monday Morning:
Large Drop-Off in LNG Demand Sinks Natural Gas Futures Early
Hey Mike,
My take is that with wx factors vs Friday pretty much neutral overall, the overall bearishness of supply has taken over for today. Related to this, I think today's price drop his is partially a hangover from the bearish EIA last Thursday with +65 actual vs +58 from the WSJ survey average. I agree that if the wx were to start looking hotter in week 3 of this month, prices would likely bounce. For now, 2 week forecasts are overall slightly warmer than normal for the US mainly due to the Euro ensemble. The GEFS is right about at normal
Thanks Larry,
I missed your comments last week, enjoy them and greatly respect your opinions.
I think that we are going to start heating up at the end of the 2 week period and each day that we come in, will add another hot day to the forecast.
NGI after the close:
LNG Terminal Work, Unimpressive Heat Send NatGas Futures to New Summer Low
5:27 PM
Natural gas bears picked up right where they left off last week, slaughtering the Nymex futures curve on Monday as feed gas deliveries to a pair of Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals continued to decline and weather forecasts showed heat mostly limited to the southern United States for the next couple of weeks.
Natural Gas Intelligence Tue early:
Production Dip Day/Day, Warmer Long-Range Trends Lift Natural Gas Futures Early
8:57 AM
Supported by a day/day drop in production following new all-time highs to open the week, natural gas futures were trading several cents higher early Tuesday. At around 8:30 a.m. ET, the September Nymex contract was up 3.6 cents to $2.106/MMBtu.
metmike: The forecast is clearly hotter today!
NGI after the close on Tuesday:
Natural Gas Bulls Get Breathing Room as Hotter Forecasts Boost Futures; Cash Up Again
5:21 PM
A hotter turn in weather models was enough to keep natural gas bears at bay Tuesday, one day after September prices sunk to a fresh summer low and put $2 gas into play. The September Nymex gas futures contract settled 4.1 cents higher at $2.111/MMBtu, while October edged up 4.1 cents to $2.124.
Wednesday morning early:
Warmer Forecast, Strong Power Burns Supporting Natural Gas Futures Early
metmike: It was the warmer European model ensembles that got us fired up very early this morning
NGI after the close on Wednesday:
Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Traders Eye Another Hefty Storage Build; Cash Slips
After some modest strength early Wednesday, natural gas futures ended the day lower as traders shrugged off building heat in long-range weather forecasts. After hitting a high of $2.145/MMBtu, the September Nymex gas contract went on to settle 2.8 cents lower at $2.083. October slipped 2.5 cents to $2.099.
+55 bcf Bullish!
for week ending August 2, 2019 | Released: August 8, 2019 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: August 15, 2019
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/02/18) | 5-year average (2014-18) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 08/02/19 | 07/26/19 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 613 | 597 | 16 | 16 | 571 | 7.4 | 646 | -5.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 701 | 677 | 24 | 24 | 576 | 21.7 | 700 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 161 | 156 | 5 | 5 | 148 | 8.8 | 177 | -9.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 272 | 270 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 11.0 | 293 | -7.2 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 941 | 934 | 7 | 7 | 808 | 16.5 | 984 | -4.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 221 | 226 | -5 | -5 | 204 | 8.3 | 263 | -16.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 719 | 708 | 11 | 11 | 604 | 19.0 | 721 | -0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,689 | 2,634 | 55 | 55 | 2,346 | 14.6 | 2,800 | -4.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. |
Working gas in storage was 2,689 Bcf as of Friday, August 2, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 343 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,800 Bcf. At 2,689 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
Latest Release Aug 08, 2019 Actual 55B Forecast 59B Previous 65B
Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 15, 2019 | 10:30 | 55B | |||
Aug 08, 2019 | 10:30 | 55B | 59B | 65B | |
Aug 01, 2019 | 10:30 | 65B | 57B | 36B | |
Jul 25, 2019 | 10:30 | 36B | 37B | 62B | |
Jul 18, 2019 | 10:30 | 62B | 65B | 81B | |
Jul 11, 2019 | 10:30 | 81B | 73B | 89B | |
Jul 03, 2019 | 12:00 | 89B | 85B | 98B | |
Jun 27, 2019 | 10:30 | 98B | 101B | 115B | |
Jun 20, 2019 | 10:30 | 115B | 107B | 102B | |
Jun 13, 2019 | 10:30 | 102B | 109B | 119B | |
Jun 06, 2019 | 10:30 | 119B | 111B | 114B | |
May 30, 2019 | 10:30 | 114B | 101B | 100B |
Natural Gas Rallies After Slightly Off-the-Mark Storage Build; Cash Slides Again
5:17 PM
Stoked early by increasingly hotter long-range weather forecasts, natural gas futures continued to rise Thursday after the Energy Information Administration.
sun wx updated
After the close on Monday:
Natural Gas Futures Slump as Traders Unimpressed by Heat; Cash Rallies
5:15 PM
Even as weather data did its part to support natural gas prices, other weak fundamentals sent Nymex futures down a couple of notches to start the week. The September Nymex gas contract settled Monday at $2.105/MMBtu, down 1.4 cents. October slipped 1.6 cents to $2.117.
Natural Gas Intelligence, after the close Tuesday:
Strong Natural Gas Cash Stokes Futures as Weather Outlooks Continue to Add Heat
5:19 PM
Building heat in long-range weather outlooks combined with strong natural gas cash prices to boost futures on Tuesday. The September Nymex gas futures contract hit an intraday high of $2.175/MMBtu before going on to settle at $2.147, up 4.2 cents on the day. October also rose 4.2 cents to $2.159.
Natural Gas Intelligence Wednesday Morning:
European Guidance Sparks Early Rally for ‘Heavily Short’ Natural Gas Futures Market
8:52 AM
Hotter overnight trends in the latest European data helped boost natural gas futures several cents higher early Wednesday. The September Nymex futures contract was trading 4.5 cents higher at $2.192/MMBtu shortly after 8:30 a.m.
metmike: The US and Canadian models were not/are not as hot as the European model.
NGI after the close on Wednesday:
Natural Gas Futures Steady Ahead of Fresh EIA Storage Data; Cash Recedes
The European model continues to be hotter than the US model.
+49 bcf BULLISH!
for week ending August 9, 2019 | Released: August 15, 2019 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: August 22, 2019
Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 15, 2019 | 10:30 | 49B | 58B | 55B | |
Aug 08, 2019 | 10:30 | 55B | 59B | 65B | |
Aug 01, 2019 | 10:30 | 65B | 57B | 36B | |
Jul 25, 2019 | 10:30 | 36B | 37B | 62B | |
Jul 18, 2019 | 10:30 | 62B | 65B | 81B | |
Jul 11, 2019 | 10:30 | 81B | 73B | 89B |
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/09/18) | 5-year average (2014-18) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 08/09/19 | 08/02/19 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 634 | 613 | 21 | 21 | 588 | 7.8 | 667 | -4.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 729 | 701 | 28 | 28 | 601 | 21.3 | 727 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 164 | 161 | 3 | 3 | 151 | 8.6 | 179 | -8.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 272 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 13.3 | 294 | -7.5 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 939 | 941 | -2 | -2 | 803 | 16.9 | 982 | -4.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 214 | 221 | -7 | -7 | 196 | 9.2 | 258 | -17.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 725 | 719 | 6 | 6 | 606 | 19.6 | 724 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,738 | 2,689 | 49 | 49 | 2,381 | 15.0 | 2,849 | -3.9 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. |
Working gas in storage was 2,738 Bcf as of Friday, August 9, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 357 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,849 Bcf. At 2,738 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Mike, Grant et al,
That +49 compared to the WSJ survey average of +61 making it 12 to the bullish side, which is easily the most bullish injection of the year. It was also the most bullish report since the one for the week ending 2/25/19, which also missed 12 to the bullish side.
I knew something happened when I check my position at my dr. Check up. My December position is up pretty good this morning.
Could this be a one time blip/exception?
NGI: Tetco Explosion, Texas Heat Seen Behind EIA’s 49 Bcf Storage Injection
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
After the close Thursday:
EIA Storage Miss Brings NatGas Bulls Back into Game; Cash Mixed
Friday morning:
Euro Model Cooler Overnight as Natural Gas Futures Retreat from Storage-Led Rally
NGI after the close Friday:
Bears Leave Natural Gas Futures Wounded; Cash Mixed as Heat Builds
One day after a huge storage miss sent natural gas futures skyrocketing, weather models trended cooler for the end of August, sending prices several cents lower to cap the week. The September Nymex gas futures contract fell 3.2 cents to settle Friday at $2.20/MMBtu, and October dropped 3 cents to $2.207.