NG week of 8/5/19
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Started by WxFollower - Aug. 4, 2019, 4:20 p.m.

12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri ensemble CDD comparisons:

GEFS -2; EPS +2

So, overall a wash/no major changes

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:35 p.m.
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Thanks for getting us started with the new week Larry!

That's the way that it looks to me.

The 12z models on Saturday all looked much hotter later in week 2 and I thought they were picking up on a big pattern change towards more heat for the 2nd half of August but they backed off of that a bit since then, though this is the way that I'm leaning with moderate confidence, so I would say the pattern has the potential to be more bullish.

We did rally after the close on Friday on some hotter 12z  guidance. Since we didn't add to that heat and we need alot of heat to go higher with extremely bearish fundamantals, we could start lower than the 4pm close on Friday.

What do you think?


By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:44 p.m.
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Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, has just passed its seasonal peak(based on historical averages). It's the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days)

Used to be that seasonals in August were positive from hurricane premium but that doesn't appear to be the case anymore. We had a nice bounce in July from the heat wave, then dropped to new contract lows on Friday but bounced back above those lows with some added heat Friday.  


Weather Sunday:(will the 2nd half of August turn hotter?)_

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36026/


Weather Monday: 2nd half of August could turn hotter but the heat is confined to the south until then.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36119/


Weather Tuesday: Clearly hotter as we start the 2nd half of August!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36189/


Weather Wednesday: Still pretty hot in week 2 but how long will it last? (bearish fundamentals)Market struggling with the bullish forecast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36274/


Weather Thursday: Even more heat but some mid day models back off on the intensity. Dryness and issue for grains with week 2 having heat too after the late week 1 rains.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36397/


Weather Friday:  Still hot and less rain

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36481/


Weather Saturday: Still hot but rains next week just jumped up on the Saturday updated guidance:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36554/


Weather Sunday: Still pretty hot with the last run hottest.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36619/


Weather Monday: Still pretty hot week 2.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36705/


Weather Wednesday: European model MUCH hotter very early morning caused ng to spike higher. US model NOT showing that, has us backing off.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36833/


Weather Thursday: Hotter

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36928/


Weather Friday: Much cooler!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36993/


Weather Saturday: Holding on to some of the cooler changes.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37057/

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:45 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:46 p.m.
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EIA last Thursday +65 BCF Bearish!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/26/18)
5-year average
(2014-18) 
Region07/26/1907/19/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East597  575  22  22   548  8.9  625  -4.5  
Midwest677  650  27  27   548  23.5  677  0.0  
Mountain156  151  5  5   146  6.8  174  -10.3  
Pacific270  271  -1  -1   250  8.0  294  -8.2  
South Central934  921  13  13   809  15.5  987  -5.4  
   Salt226  229  -3  -3   207  9.2  268  -15.7  
   Nonsalt708  692  16  16   602  17.6  719  -1.5  
Total2,634  2,569  65  65   2,300  14.5  2,757  -4.5  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,634 Bcf as of Friday, July 26, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 334 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 123 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,757 Bcf. At 2,634 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:47 p.m.
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        +65 BCF vs 57 BCF forecast                

    

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Aug 01, 2019 10:3065B57B36B
Jul 25, 2019 10:3036B37B62B
Jul 18, 2019 10:3062B65B81B
Jul 11, 2019 10:3081B73B89B
Jul 03, 2019 12:0089B85B98B
Jun 27, 2019 10:3098B101B115B
By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:49 p.m.
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Here is the temperature map for the 7 days, ending the previous  Friday that went into last Thursday's EIA report. 

MUCH cooler than the previous week, so as predicted  the injection was MUCH higher. 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20190726.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:51 p.m.
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These were the 7 day temps, ending last Friday that will go into the report this Thursday. Cool Midwest/South vs average, very warm Northeast/West. Similar to the previous week for locations of the anomalies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20190801.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:54 p.m.
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The dominant imposing factor for prices this year has been massive, record large injections that have increased supplies faster than any time in history and crushed prices.

The first 2 weeks of July, however featured increasing heat in the extended forecasts, so natural got a huge lift. Cooler forecasts after that has sent prices crashing back to life of contract lows set on June 20th, just above 2.1 for the September contract, which is now the front month. We broke thru that last Friday, after the bearish EIA report on Thursday but closed above it with some added heat to the forecasts Friday morning/afternoon.

 The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts thru the rest of the Summer. Widespread, sustained heat needs to return to the forecast if prices have  hope of rebounding again.

Cash prices have been below $2, so it's possible that we can still go lower than this, especially if we are cool in August.

NG 7 days

https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?module=chartImage&rawOutput=1&symbol=NG*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1549311628&endDate=1549916428


Natural gas 3 months below

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:56 p.m.
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This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.

This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June. This years extraordinary, contra seasonal plunge lower has been the result of super duper, huge, injections...records by a wide margin........ that have provided numerous bearish surprises and crushed prices. Cash prices during this period have been below $2 at times.   We are now in a time frame when ng seasonals become very negative, from mid/late June thru August.

Widespread, intense heat in the forecast gave us an early July, contra seasonal bounce that vanished quickly when the forecasts turned cooler.

We need August to bring widespread heat to go higher with confidence.



Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 5:59 p.m.
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Looks like a lower open as speculated earlier.

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2019, 6:03 p.m.
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Wow, ng is nuts.

It was a much lower open and in fact we made a new contract low of 2.067 in the first few seconds of trading.

Anybody long from the warmer 12z Friday models just wished they weren't long.........even though the forecast has not changed much.

This seems like a great place to get long if the maps shift to much hotter, like they looked on Saturday morning.

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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From natural gas intelligence Monday Morning:

Large Drop-Off in LNG Demand Sinks Natural Gas Futures Early

By WxFollower - Aug. 5, 2019, 1:45 p.m.
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Hey Mike,

 My take is that with wx factors vs Friday pretty much neutral overall, the overall bearishness of supply has taken over for today. Related to this, I think today's price drop his is partially a hangover from the bearish EIA last Thursday with +65 actual vs +58 from the WSJ survey average. I agree that if the wx were to start looking hotter in week 3 of this month, prices would likely bounce. For now, 2 week forecasts are overall slightly warmer than normal for the US mainly due to the Euro ensemble. The GEFS is right about at normal

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2019, 8:11 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

I missed your comments last week, enjoy them and greatly respect your opinions. 

I think that we are going to start heating up at the end of the 2 week period and each day that we come in, will add another hot day to the forecast.


NGI after the close: 

LNG Terminal Work, Unimpressive Heat Send NatGas Futures to New Summer Low

     5:27 PM    

Natural gas bears picked up right where they left off last week, slaughtering the Nymex futures curve on Monday as feed gas deliveries to a pair of Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals continued to decline and weather forecasts showed heat mostly limited to the southern United States for the next couple of weeks.

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence Tue early:

Production Dip Day/Day, Warmer Long-Range Trends Lift Natural Gas Futures Early

     8:57 AM    

Supported by a day/day drop in production following new all-time highs to open the week, natural gas futures were trading several cents higher early Tuesday. At around 8:30 a.m. ET, the September Nymex contract was up 3.6 cents to $2.106/MMBtu.

metmike: The forecast is clearly hotter today!

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2019, 6:01 p.m.
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NGI after the close on Tuesday:

Natural Gas Bulls Get Breathing Room as Hotter Forecasts Boost Futures; Cash Up Again

     5:21 PM    

A hotter turn in weather models was enough to keep natural gas bears at bay Tuesday, one day after September prices sunk to a fresh summer low and put $2 gas into play. The September Nymex gas futures contract settled 4.1 cents higher at $2.111/MMBtu, while October edged up 4.1 cents to $2.124.

Wednesday morning early:

Warmer Forecast, Strong Power Burns Supporting Natural Gas Futures Early


metmike: It was the warmer European model ensembles that got us fired up very early this morning

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2019, 12:54 a.m.
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NGI after the close on Wednesday:

Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Traders Eye Another Hefty Storage Build; Cash Slips

        

After some modest strength early Wednesday, natural gas futures ended the day lower as traders shrugged off building heat in long-range weather forecasts. After hitting a high of $2.145/MMBtu, the September Nymex gas contract went on to settle 2.8 cents lower at $2.083. October slipped 2.5 cents to $2.099.

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2019, 3:06 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

+55 bcf Bullish!

 for week ending August 2, 2019   |  Released: August 8, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 15, 2019 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(08/02/18)
5-year average
(2014-18) 
Region08/02/1907/26/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East613  597  16  16   571  7.4  646  -5.1  
Midwest701  677  24  24   576  21.7  700  0.1  
Mountain161  156  5  5   148  8.8  177  -9.0  
Pacific272  270  2  2   245  11.0  293  -7.2  
South Central941  934  7  7   808  16.5  984  -4.4  
   Salt221  226  -5  -5   204  8.3  263  -16.0  
   Nonsalt719  708  11  11   604  19.0  721  -0.3  
Total2,689  2,634  55  55   2,346  14.6  2,800  -4.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,689 Bcf as of Friday, August 2, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 343 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,800 Bcf. At 2,689 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2019, 3:09 p.m.
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       https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386  

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Latest Release     Aug 08, 2019    Actual 55B     Forecast 59B      Previous 65B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Aug 15, 2019 10:30  55B
Aug 08, 2019 10:3055B59B65B
Aug 01, 2019 10:3065B57B36B
Jul 25, 2019 10:3036B37B62B
Jul 18, 2019 10:3062B65B81B
Jul 11, 2019 10:3081B73B89B
Jul 03, 2019 12:0089B85B98B
Jun 27, 2019 10:3098B101B115B
Jun 20, 2019 10:30115B107B102B
Jun 13, 2019 10:30102B109B119B
Jun 06, 2019 10:30119B111B114B
May 30, 2019 10:30114B101B100B


By metmike - Aug. 8, 2019, 7:01 p.m.
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Natural Gas Rallies After Slightly Off-the-Mark Storage Build; Cash Slides Again

     5:17 PM    

Stoked early by increasingly hotter long-range weather forecasts, natural gas futures continued to rise Thursday after the Energy Information Administration.

By metmike - Aug. 11, 2019, 2:03 p.m.
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sun wx updated

By metmike - Aug. 13, 2019, 12:10 a.m.
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After the close on Monday:

Natural Gas Futures Slump as Traders Unimpressed by Heat; Cash Rallies

     5:15 PM    

Even as weather data did its part to support natural gas prices, other weak fundamentals sent Nymex futures down a couple of notches to start the week. The September Nymex gas contract settled Monday at $2.105/MMBtu, down 1.4 cents. October slipped 1.6 cents to $2.117.

By metmike - Aug. 13, 2019, 6:05 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence, after the close Tuesday:

                  

Strong Natural Gas Cash Stokes Futures as Weather Outlooks Continue to Add Heat

     5:19 PM    

Building heat in long-range weather outlooks combined with strong natural gas cash prices to boost futures on Tuesday. The September Nymex gas futures contract hit an intraday high of $2.175/MMBtu before going on to settle at $2.147, up 4.2 cents on the day. October also rose 4.2 cents to $2.159.

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2019, 1:07 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence Wednesday Morning:

European Guidance Sparks Early Rally for ‘Heavily Short’ Natural Gas Futures Market

     8:52 AM    

Hotter overnight trends in the latest European data helped boost natural gas futures several cents higher early Wednesday. The September Nymex futures contract was trading 4.5 cents higher at $2.192/MMBtu shortly after 8:30 a.m.


metmike: The US and Canadian models were not/are not as hot as the European model.

By metmike - Aug. 14, 2019, 11:01 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 10:17 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 10:33 a.m.
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      +49 bcf BULLISH!         

        https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Latest Release Aug 15, 2019  Actual49B  Forecast58B    Previous55B


Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending August 9, 2019   |  Released: August 15, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 22, 2019 

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Aug 15, 2019 10:3049B58B55B
Aug 08, 2019 10:3055B59B65B
Aug 01, 2019 10:3065B57B36B
Jul 25, 2019 10:3036B37B62B
Jul 18, 2019 10:3062B65B81B
Jul 11, 2019 10:3081B73B89B

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(08/09/18)
5-year average
(2014-18) 
Region08/09/1908/02/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East634  613  21  21   588  7.8  667  -4.9  
Midwest729  701  28  28   601  21.3  727  0.3  
Mountain164  161  3  3   151  8.6  179  -8.4  
Pacific272  272  0  0   240  13.3  294  -7.5  
South Central939  941  -2  -2   803  16.9  982  -4.4  
   Salt214  221  -7  -7   196  9.2  258  -17.1  
   Nonsalt725  719  6  6   606  19.6  724  0.1  
Total2,738  2,689  49  49   2,381  15.0  2,849  -3.9  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,738 Bcf as of Friday, August 9, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 357 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,849 Bcf. At 2,738 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By WxFollower - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:02 p.m.
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Mike, Grant et al,

 That +49 compared to the WSJ survey average of +61 making it 12 to the bullish side, which is easily the most bullish injection of the year. It was also the most bullish report since the one for the week ending 2/25/19, which also missed 12 to the bullish side.

By wxgrant - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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I knew something happened when I check my position at my dr. Check up. My December position is up pretty good this morning. 

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:34 p.m.
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Could this be a one time blip/exception?



NGI: Tetco Explosion, Texas Heat Seen Behind EIA’s 49 Bcf Storage Injection


By metmike - Aug. 16, 2019, 12:27 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 17, 2019, 2:13 p.m.
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NGI after the close Friday:

Bears Leave Natural Gas Futures Wounded; Cash Mixed as Heat Builds

        

One day after a huge storage miss sent natural gas futures skyrocketing, weather models trended cooler for the end of August, sending prices several cents lower to cap the week. The September Nymex gas futures contract fell 3.2 cents to settle Friday at $2.20/MMBtu, and October dropped 3 cents to $2.207.