INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 7, 2019, 4:12 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, August 8, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (previous 215K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1699000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 272.7K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 448.6K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 383.1K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2634B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +65B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, August 9, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. July PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)



Monday, August 12, 2019 



12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



  N/A              U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it rebounded off the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. September traded slightly higher marketing a notable comeback for the technology laden index and the the broader market that had traded sharply lower on deepening fears of a global economic weakness. The Nasdaq had been down by as much as 130 points before it managed to reverse its decline on no apparent news. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7688.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7688.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7851.60. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2933.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2933.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2975.13. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.  



The Dow was lower on Wednesday due to a sell off in Walt Disney and JP-Morgan Chase stocks, which dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average into negative territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,500.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,500.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,943.88. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 17/32's at 161-17.



September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 157-18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-30.          



September T-notes closed up 130-pts. At 130.180.



September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 131.000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.180 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 131.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.151. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.286.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as the U.S./ China trade war is seen as a risk to global energy demand. Today's sell off spiked below June's low and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.53. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 58.82. First support is today's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99. 



September heating oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 197.47. Second resistance is July's high crossing at  202.40. First support is today's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77. 



September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.78. First support is today's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.



September Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.292 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.292. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 2.476. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.30. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 96.79.



The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.02 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 112.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.02. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.



The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2380 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2237. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2380. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2104. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0354. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0064. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.17. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.81. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.   



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 2018 high crossing at 0.0948. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 0.0931. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0918.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



October gold closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1438.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1516.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1449.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1438.70.



September silver closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.213 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.213. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.523.          



September copper closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.16 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.16. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 252.64.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.14. 



December corn closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.27 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.27 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.97 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.91.   



December wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.91 1/4. 



December wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.67 1/2.     



December Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/2-cents at 4.35 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.53 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 5.31 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.57 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.28. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.25.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up 1-cent at 8.67.



November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.96 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.96 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.  



December soybean meal closed down $2.20 at 300.40. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 318.10. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.  



December soybean oil closed up 36-pts at 28.29. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 27.87 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is July's low crossing at crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $2.25 at $66.85. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.75. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $0.23 at 106.45. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 104.85. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.25 at $138.90. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.57. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 22.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.94 would confirm that a low has been posted.



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 7, 2019, 5:23 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

We took out rain amounts from the big rains coming up next week.  Still looking for the heat ridge to build in after that, so the forecast is more bullish (less bearish) grains. 

Cotton reversed from sharply lower to close a bit higher, possibly signaling a bottom is in until rains come to the TX panhandle.

Natural gas was wild with week 2 heat building in vs very bearish supply fundamentals.









By metmike - Aug. 7, 2019, 5:25 p.m.
Like Reply

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126








http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


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