INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 8, 2019, 7:43 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, August 8, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 215K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1699000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 272.7K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 448.6K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 383.1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2634B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +65B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, August 9, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

Monday, August 12, 2019  

 



 

 

12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as stocks look to extend their rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7696.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7696.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7836.84. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2935.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2935.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2970.45. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of  Wednesday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish following yesterday's downside reversal signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-09.



September T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of Wednesday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.004 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 131.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 131.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.214. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.004. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 58.82. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 61.02. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99.    



September heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 197.47. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 202.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15.



September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high June's low crossing at 160.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 187.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 197.13. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is June's low crossing at 160.62.



September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.212 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.212. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.282. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.909.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.79.



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it appears to be forming a small symmetrical triangle to consolidate some of the rally off the August 1st low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.02 would open the door for additional short covering gains. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 113.44. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2361 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2206. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2361 is the next upside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2104. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are  overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0193 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the August 1st low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0354. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0193. Second support is last-Thursday's crossing at 1.0064. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.91. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68.



The September Japanese Yen was higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0948. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. Second support is the August 1st low crossing at 0.0918.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the August 1st low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1443.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1516.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1457.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1443.20.



September silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.305 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 17.260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.305. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.574. 



September copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.66. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 252.64.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off the August 1st low.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.26 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.15 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.26 1/4. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 3.97 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.91.    



December wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.03 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/2-cents at 4.35 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.53 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.28. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.25.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past five days.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.94. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.20. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends this summer's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains that would signal sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 29.32 or below 27.87 are needed to point the direction of the short-term trend. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.52. First support is July's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $2.25 at $66.85. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.75. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $0.23 at 106.45. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 104.85. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.25 at $138.90. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.57. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 22.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.94 would confirm that a low has been posted.



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.47 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2019, 1:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine. 

Possible heat ridge and possibly drier weather in week 2 are bullish.

Rains before then might or might not be generous.