STS Alberto highest winds 45 mph: landfalled FL Pan.; will weaken Mon night over land
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Started by WxFollower - May 17, 2018, 9:02 a.m.

 There is now near unanimous agreement that there will be a tropical low forming in the NW Caribbean about 7 days from now or around 5/24. (This compares to those GFS runs on their own around a week ago that were forming it there around 5/18-19 and turning it into an unrealistic for May cat 2 H later hitting FL on many runs.)

  From there, the models have it move northward to or near FL around day 10 (near 5/27).  Most models bring it to TS strength then though GFS runs have a cat 1 H. I think TS strength would be more realistic in late May. FL is now at risk for a TS hit around 5/27.

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By metmike - May 17, 2018, 9:23 a.m.
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Thanks much Larry!

Am so glad we have you here. 


Here is the link from the NHC for others to follow tropical systems this season.......or just come here for Larry's posts!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



By silverspiker - May 17, 2018, 2:02 p.m.
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Thank you Larry...(*have a vested interest in real estate property in Juno Beach, Fl.*).

I also remeber your Orange Juice producer views that you posted in the past. Thank you for sharing your 

weather/market views.

- Evan

By WxFollower - May 17, 2018, 4 p.m.
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Mike/Evan, You're welcome. Here's some relevant historical info to keep in mind:


History since 1851 of W Caribbean/GOM geneses during 5/21-31: 5 trop. storms but no hurricanes


1) 5/30/2008's TS Arthur: strongest 40 knots/1004 mb when it hit Belize 5/31

2) 5/28/1959's TS Arlene: strongest 50 knots/1000 mb when 100 miles S of LA 5/30; hit LA 5/30 with 40 knot max; the only GOM genesis of these 5

3) 5/25/1953's TS Alice: hit W Cuba 5/31 with 50 knot max; strongest 60 knots/997 mb when in NE GOM 6/5; hit FL panhandle 6/6 with 40 knot max

4) 5/27/1890's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SE Gulf on 5/29; falls aparts in open SE Gulf

5) 5/29/1865's TS #1: strongest 50 knots in SW Caribbean, the only position recorded


 In summary, the highest recorded wind max on land of these was a 50 knot hit on W Cuba. The highest on the US/Belize was 40 knots. The highest in any point of the track of these 5 was 60 knots (high end TS). Based on this, IF there is going to be a TC hit anywhere on land, I have to favor no stronger than a TS.

 

# of W Caribbean/GOM geneses since 1851


May 1-10:   2

May 11-20: 4

May 21-31: 5

June 1-10: 16

june 11-20: 26

By metmike - May 17, 2018, 4:47 p.m.
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Fascinating Larry!

What's especially interesting is that the only one in the last 50+ years of global warming, was Arthur in 2008. 

2 of them in the 1950's happened during global cooling and the other 2 in the 1800's, were obviously when the planet was more than 1 deg. C colder.

As we've discussed before, global warming DECREASES the temp gradient from north to to south because it warms the higher latitudes(coldest places) the most. When this happens, the atmosphere does not need to "work" as hard to equalize the heat imbalance across the planet.

Of course the variation in the  suns angle causes all of it............high angled powerful sun in the tropics heats things up.........low angled sun towards the poles does not heat things so much(or during long Winters is not even there).

Five Good Things About a Hurricane

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/08/five-good-things-about-hurricane/

"Tropical cyclones help maintain the global heat balance by moving warm tropical air away from the equator and towards the poles. Without them, the tropics would get a lot hotter and the poles a lot colder… A typical tropical cyclone releases heat energy of about 50 to 200 exajoules a day. That’s equivalent to 70 times our worldwide energy consumption."

In the course of a year, low latitudes gain more heat and high latitudes loose more heat. Tropical cyclones help transport heat from the equator towards the poles. Credit: NASA.In the course of a year, low latitudes gain more heat and high latitudes loose more heat. Tropical cyclones help transport heat from the equator towards the poles. Credit: NASA.

 

By metmike - May 17, 2018, 4:48 p.m.
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I am loving our ability to post graphs, charts and weather maps!!!!

By WxFollower - May 18, 2018, 2:56 p.m.
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 I have yet to be in the likely to develop camp nor in the hurricane camp (both based on climo), but I did go into the "increasing threat of a TS to FL" camp yesterday when I noted the near unanimous ageement of the models for a tropical low to form in the NW Caribbean near day 7 (5/24). If anything, today that TS threat has fallen back some but there still is a low (more than minute) chance imo. I'm near a 5% chance for a FL TS hit currently. Weak model progs along with climo and knowing that the Gulf has recently not been all that warm are keeping it down as there's a much greater chance that there will either be something weaker than TS, maybe even nothing organized, or maybe even a miss of FL.

 Climo to keep in mind: There have been only 5 TS and no H on record to form in the W. Car. or GOM during 5/21-31 since 1851. So, that's only 5 in 167 years or 1 in 33 chance/3% of there even being a genesis. Only 1 of those 5 hit FL. So, only 1 in 167 years had a FL TS hit or well under 1%. So, even going with a 5% chance of a FL hit in 2018 in deference to the model consensus of a threat of something is WAY, WAY above the longterm climo based chance.

 The 5 W Car/GOM 5/21-31 geneses on record since 1851:

- 5/30/2008
- 5/28/1959: hit LA at 40 knots
- 5/25/1953: hit FL at 40 knots
- 5/27/1890
- 5/29/1865


  In deference to this model agreement, I'm currently near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form next week either in the W Car. or in the GOM, which is quite high in that area for late May, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms next week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance.

By metmike - May 18, 2018, 5:12 p.m.
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Larry,

Water temperatures in that region are only slightly above normal to normal, except for right along the Gulf Coast.

There is a pocket of cool anamolies in the far eastern GOM.


The big warm anomolies are out in the central Atlantic right now:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anoma.5.17.2018.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anoma.5.17.2018.gif

By WxFollower - May 22, 2018, 12:27 p.m.
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In deference to the models, I'm currently still near a respectable 1 in 3 chance for a TD to form this week though now I'm thinking in the GOM if it occurs, which is quite high in that area for late May, but still only near a 5% chance for a subsequent FL TS hit. So, I'm saying that IF a TD forms this week, there's about a 1 in 6 chance for that TD to hit FL as a TS before the month is out. That's how I get my 5% FL TS hit chance. I'm at a 10% chance for an actual TS hit anywhere along the US Gulf coast by the end of May.


 Edit: By the way, this has officially been designated as Invest 90L unlike the last Gulf low being watched.

By metmike - May 22, 2018, 2:42 p.m.
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By WxFollower - May 23, 2018, 12:36 p.m.
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 You're welcome, Mike.

 In deference to non-GFS models persisting with genesis of either a TC or a STC after a couple of days (genesis time coming in closer despite it being only late May) and also considering satellite trends, I'm raising the chance for a GOM genesis of either a TD or a STD to 50%. In concert with this, I'm also raising the chance for either a TS or a STS landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast to a 1 in 3 chance. In other words, I'm now at a 2 out of 3 chance for a TS/STS landfall IF there is a TD/STD genesis. I'm still at only a 10% chance for a TS/STS landfall on FL. This is based on seeing SSTs that are plenty warm enough to sustain a TS/STS all the way to the coast but moreso west of the FL Panhandle. I'm at only a 5% chance that this will ever be a H and am only at a 1% chance for this to landfall as a H somewhere on the Gulf coast.

By metmike - May 23, 2018, 1:49 p.m.
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Thanks for the update Larry!

By WxFollower - May 24, 2018, 3:15 p.m.
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YW, Mike.

 I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!

By WxFollower - May 25, 2018, 11:58 a.m.
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Subtropical storm Alberto has formed this morning with highest winds of 40 mph. He is predicted to hit the central Gulf coast as a 65 mph TS around Monday. This will very likely mean at least several bcf of NG shutins this weekend and possibly lingering afterward.

By metmike - May 25, 2018, 12:55 p.m.
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I noted NG plunging lower before 9am, until just before 10am, when the system got a name. It might have been tied to a short term model showing the tropical system being weaker, which is consistent with your thoughts yesterday that some of the strength was tied to this tropical system and potential shut ins.


Could be buy the rumor sell the fact type action?


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents


cone graphic

By WxFollower - May 25, 2018, 1:45 p.m.
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metmike said: 

"Could be buy the rumor sell the fact type action?"

 Mike, I think that may very well be the case though I wonder if morning forecasts/models have cooled since yesterday to contribute to the drop. I'll know more after I see any news stories on NG (at my newsfeed), which I've yet to see.

 So, perhaps there were some shutins dialed in in recent days, which would then be one of the reasons for the recent rise since models have had this consistently for many days now.

 I  don't think it is tied to any one model run showing a weaker system.

 Aside about one short term model: the NAM is not an accurate model for tropical cyclone accuracy (genesis/predicted track & strength) in case you didn't know. Of course, no one model is highly accurate due to the inherent uncertainty with tropical systems as you know though the Euro is one of the best and better than the GFS more often than not. But I've found the NAM to be way off its rocker many times. I've read that its design is not meant to handle tropical systems well. They are out of the NAM's wheelhouse although any model run of any model can get lucky/blind squirrel.

 Of course, the effect these days is much less pronounced vs, say, 10+ years ago, when there was much more GOM production and also when fracking was only in its early days.


**Edited several times**

By metmike - May 25, 2018, 2:05 p.m.
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Agree about the NAM. 


I think the news feeds/explanations are pretty good much of the time but since they MUST have an explanation, that's there job they will sometimes give the most likely one when they really don't know and be wrong.

Let's say that ng ends up lower today. They could say that it was from cooler long range forecasts or from Alberto not looking like as much of a threat. If its higher, they could say that its from TS Alberto or they could say that its from a continued expectation of heat in the long range forecast. 


The reality, is that maybe all of this is all dialed in and nothing really changed today. Maybe traders just did position squaring ahead of the weekend. Or maybe the rally has gone up enough with bearish supply fundaments and we stalled out here.


They will find a good reason to report though...........and after they report the reason, one might think "dang, if they are so smart and always know what natural gas is trading and why it went up and why it went down, why are they making a living as a natural gas news reporter and not as a trader that uses their own information in the market they are the expert on?

By WxFollower - May 25, 2018, 2:13 p.m.
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Great post, Mike! I agree the news writers are often clueless or misinformed as they are forced to write something. And who are these traders they talk to? And how do we know that these traders aren't deliberately trying to mislead and cause a news story to have false info for whatever reason?


Edit at 2:21 PM: However, sometimes they'll have direct comments from weather forecasters who forecast for traders. That is different as that is objective info since these mets aren't allowed to trade in order to insure objectivity. That is useful info.

By WxFollower - May 25, 2018, 2:27 p.m.
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^I'm sure Mike and many of you realize this: Another reason comments from traders are often useless is that these traders are often just "taking their book". So, if they're already long (short), many of them will talk up bullishness (bearishness) just in the hope that the market will be influenced thus making their position more profitable. The bull version of this at least as regards thinly traded stocks is sometimes called "pump and dump".

By metmike - May 27, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Great comments Larry!


When a thread gets this long but is rich with good comments, would you prefer to keep it going for several days or start a new one?

Am keeping the old one today.


Here is the latest on Alberto. The NHS has shifted the track farther to the right/east overnight:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

cone graphic

By WxFollower - May 27, 2018, 1:25 p.m.
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 Thanks, Mike. I'd prefer to keep all of the Alberto stuff in one for continuity reasons as long as it doesn't get too long and to help keep the # of topics down. So, if anyone would ever want to look back at the Alberto posts (say several years from now), it would all be in one thread. One thing I've been doing (as I'm sure you noticed) is to edit the topic title as we go along so as to keep it up to date and, therefore, more informative to the reader looking at the list of topics.

  If you don't like it all being in one thread, I fully understand and wouldn't be offended. But if you do start a new thread, I recommend you link to the new thread in the last post of the old one as well as putting in a link from the old thread within the 1st post of the new thread to connect them. Of course for this to work best, you might also want to close the old thread to any subsequent posts if you can do that here.

By WxFollower - May 27, 2018, 3:51 p.m.
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 Regarding Alberto's net effect on NG, I see no shutins reported so far. With the further east track vs Fri's thinking, it looks like total shutins will be very low...quite possibly under 1 bcf. At the same time, the clouds and rains from Alberto will result in cooling vs what would otherwise had been the case though RH will increase. The effect of that cooling would be lower CDDs in much of the SE US and further north later. I could see that causing at the very least a few bcf worth of reduced demand.

 So, since shutins are going to be very low, Alberto will end up as being a net bearish influence on the supply/demand balance for NG by at the very least a few bcf vs if it had instead been mainly sunny and hot with no storm. 

Any other opinions?

By WxFollower - May 27, 2018, 10:56 p.m.
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At 65 mph as well as at 994 mb, Alberto becomes the strongest May GOM tropical or subtropical cyclone on record since 1863!

By metmike - May 28, 2018, 5:02 a.m.
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Agree that Alberto is net bearish natural gas based on your assessment.