INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 9, 2019, 4:26 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, August 12, 2019 



12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



  N/A              U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of the rebound off the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7829.13 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7738.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7829.13. First support isthe 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06. 



The September S&P 500 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2939.09. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2967.93 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2940.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2967.93. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.  



The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday after President Donald Trump’s comment that a near-term deal between the U.S. and China on tariffs was unlikely soon. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,859.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,550.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,859.42. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.



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September T-bonds closed down 9/32's at 161-09.



September T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-22.          



September T-notes closed up 65-pts. At 129.230.



September T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.048 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 131.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 131.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.291. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.048.        



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September crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday due to technically related short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.90. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 58.82. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99. 



September heating oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 197.47. Second resistance is July's high crossing at  202.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77. 



September unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.



September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.274 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.196. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.274. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.79.



The September Euro posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.01 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 112.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.01. First support is August's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.



The September British Pound closed lower on Friday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2333 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2170. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2333. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2064. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0199 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0354. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0064. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.08. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.81. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.   



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0952. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing 0.0937. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933.  



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October gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1447.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1516.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1465.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1447.20.



September silver posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.384 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 17.260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.384. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.619.          



September copper closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.22. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 252.64.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.17 3/4. 



December corn closed fractionally lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.97 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.91.   



December wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 5.01 3/4. 



December wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.67 1/2.     



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.33 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.72 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 5.30 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.28. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.25.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up 10-cents at 8.93.



November soybeans closed higher on Friday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.92 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.92 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.  



December soybean meal closed up $2.40 at 304.40. 



December soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 317.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.  



December soybean oil closed up 62-pts at 30.00. 



December soybean oil closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30.03. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12. First support is July's low crossing at crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.     

 

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October hogs closed down $0.90 at $66.98. 



October hogs closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed unchanged at 106.43. 



October cattle closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 104.85. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $1.38 at $138.25. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off Monday's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.57. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target.  



September cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 21.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.87 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 11, 2019, 1:26 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine:

Get ready for a wild spike on Monday at 11 am after the release of the USDA August report. One of the most uncertain in history.

Rains developing on Sunday and pushing east are vital........might track north of many dry areas.

Still some heat in week 2.