INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 12, 2019, 7:16 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, August 12, 2019  

 



 

 

12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Victory Day in Rhode Island

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7811.49 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7738.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7811.49. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2962.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2940.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2962.57. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish again signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-03.



September T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.091 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 131.000 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 131.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.053. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.091. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.59. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99.    



September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 184.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.98. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15. 



September unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 172.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.06. First support is June's low crossing at 160.62. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.



September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.185 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.185. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.267. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.909.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it continues to form an ascending triangle. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.81.



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.00 would open the door for additional short covering gains. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 113.44. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2309 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2309. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2531 is the next upside target. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are  overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the August 1st low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0203 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0354. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0203. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0064.



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.01. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.91. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68.



The September Japanese Yen was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0940. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1451.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1516.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1473.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1451.70.



September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.461 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 17.260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.625. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.461. 



September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 252.64.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off the August 1st low. Pre-report guesses for Corn acres are 87.998 acres with a yield of 164.9 bu. Per acre. Production is estimated at 13.193 billion bushels with ending stocks estimated at 1.620 billion bushels. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.22 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.36 3/4. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 3.97 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.91.    



December wheat was lower overnight. Traders are not looking for any major surprises in today's WASDE report. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.01. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.33 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.72 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.54 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at 5.28. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.25.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Pre-report acreage estimates for soybeans are 81.006 million acres with an average yield of 47.6 bushels per acre. Production is estimated at 3.800 billion bushels with an expected carryout of 821 million bushels. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.91. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.



December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 316.50. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance level is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 First support is July's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $0.90 at $66.98. 



October hogs closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed unchanged at 106.43. 



October cattle closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 104.85. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed down $1.38 at $138.25. 



October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off Monday's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 134.57. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target.  



September cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 21.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.87 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By silverspiker - Aug. 12, 2019, 10:25 a.m.
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By silverspiker - Aug. 12, 2019, 11:15 a.m.
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Sadness flies away on the wings of time. - Jean de La Fontaine