KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, August 13, 2019  

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism\

                       Small Business Idx (expected 102.7; previous 103.3)

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.4%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.3%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)

9:30 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.1M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it continues to consolidate some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7789.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7738.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7789.11. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.

The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it continues to consolidate some of the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2954.76 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2940.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2954.76. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 160-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-20.

September T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.149 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.159. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.149. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

September crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.52. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.05. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 49.99.    

September heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 183.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.56. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 172.15. 

September unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 170.73. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.20. First support is June's low crossing at 160.62. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.

September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.174. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.261. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.909.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.82.

The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-day trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.99 would open the door for additional gains. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 111.92 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.99. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 113.44. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    

The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2292 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2292. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2519 is the next upside target. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the August 1^st low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0208 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0365. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0208. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0064.

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.96. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.91. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68.

The September Japanese Yen was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0935 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0943. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0935.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1457.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1532.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1483.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1457.90.

September silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.559 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.721. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.559. 

September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.99. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 252.64.     

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.80 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 3.78.    

December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.  

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 24 1/2-cents at 4.09.

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.04 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.  

December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.53 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.19 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.89 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.89 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.

December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 315.90. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   

December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance level is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 First support is July's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

October hogs closed up $0.10 at $67.08. 

October hogs closed higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  

October cattle closed down $3.00 at 103.75. 

October cattle closed limit down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is today's low crossing at 103.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

October Feeder cattle closed down $4.50 at $133.75. 

October Feeder cattle closed limit down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.72 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is today's low crossing at 133.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.   

September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 21.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October sugar closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends last-week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. 

December cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.