Weather
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Started by metmike - May 18, 2018, 10:04 a.m.

Next 7 days of rain are still a big item. 

Rains his month have been OVER forecast by every model, for everytime frame and by every forecaster...........including me but this time they may be coming:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day2.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day3.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

Comments
Re: Weather
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By mcfarm - May 18, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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believe when see it Mike. Been so dry here we almost got one out of the east last nite. Our local come on this am and says it raining in St Louis and soon will be here. Well one problem Mr Met, as anyone with a radar can tell the rain is heading west out of St Louis and last time I checked Indianapolis is way east of that location....the things you see on TV!

Re: Re: Weather
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By Jim_M - May 18, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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I'm in the wait and see camp.  There has been consistent forecasts of rain here in NE Ohio over the last couple days, but I haven't seen it.

By metmike - May 18, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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I agree with you guys. For the past month, every model, every forecast and forecasters has been MUCH too wet, including me.

We'll see what happens this time.

By metmike - May 18, 2018, 12:58 p.m.
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Severe storm risk the next few days:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

                                          

Current Convective Outlooks
        Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Weiss/Leitman
Issued: 18/1628Z
Valid: 18/1630Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Darrow
Issued: 18/0438Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Darrow
Issued: 18/0637Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook         
By metmike - May 18, 2018, 1:37 p.m.
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Latest 12Z GFS operational model run has no heat ridge, in week 2,  other than in the Southwest to the far S.Plains. In fact, its actually on the cool side in the East.


 Keep in mind this is just one model run and pretty far out and contradicts most previous guidance(so it is probably wrong).

However, ng did take a small hit when it came out:

      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - May 18, 2018, 2:04 p.m.
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Most of the rain that falls, is in the next 9 days on this GFS model.

Forecast Hour:  216
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_216_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_216_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - May 18, 2018, 5:05 p.m.
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These posts belong in the weather thread:

                By metmike - May 18, 2018, 4:50 p.m.            

           

                            

The week 2 forecast guidance is getting interesting.

Note the heat ridge backing up a bit. The Southeast will shift to having a weak trough vs a heat ridge. This is very important.

A heat ridge in the Southeast, pumps in warm humid air into the Midwest and will be causing all the rain in the next week with jet stream and front dynamics interacting with the moisture in the midsection of the country.

However, take away the strength of that moisture pump with its southerly winds blowing deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico well into the Midwest and replace it with a trough, that has the opposite effect............suppressing moisture/confining it to closer proximaty to the Gulf because winds on the back side of the trough will be towards the south, not from the south...........so air masses will be drier and of more of a continental origin as you get farther north from the GOM.

As a result, the 8-14 day forecast is dialing in some dryness now, with the heat centered a bit farther northwest than it has been:

Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

                                    


            

                                                                                                  

                    

                                                                                                                  

       


                            

                By metmike - May 18, 2018, 5:02 p.m.            

                                                                 

The experimental week 3 and week 4 weather forecast continues the late week 2 pattern, backing the heat ridge farther west and having a weak upper level trough in the Southeast US:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/


    


Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 02 Jun 2018 to 15 Jun 2018
Updated: 18 May 2018

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability