KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 15, 2019
8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 0.5; previous 4.3)
Employment Idx (previous -9.6)
New Orders Idx (previous -1.5)
Prices Received (previous 5.8)
8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 8.0; previous 21.8)
Prices Paid (previous 16.1)
Employment (previous 30.0)
New Orders (previous 18.9)
Prices Received (previous 9.5)
Delivery Times (previous 15.0)
Inventories (previous 8.1)
Shipments (previous 24.9)
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 214K; previous 209K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1684000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +3.6%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.0%; previous -0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 239.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 420K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 487.7K)
9:15 AM ET. July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.8%; previous 77.9%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 65; previous 65)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2689B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +55B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:00 PM ET. June Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 16, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previou 1.253M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -0.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.27M; previous 1.220M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +4.1%; previous -6.1%)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 97.0; previous 98.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 90.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
N/A U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day
Monday, August 19, 2019
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday concerns that the economy might be poised to slip into a recession. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7782.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7782.69. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8051.75. First support isthe 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2950.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2950.97. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Wednesday over recession concerns regarding the economy.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,605.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,605.70. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 27,281.65. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.
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September T-bonds closed up 2-01/32's at 164-31.
September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 165-07. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-02.
September T-notes closed up 200-pts. At 130.145.
September T-notes closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.184 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.228. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.184.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed lower on Wednesday after a U.S. government report revealed that domestic crude inventories rose for a second week in row, and as the risks of an economic recession fed worries about energy demand. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 58.82 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.82. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 61.02. First support is August's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99.
September heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 184.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.05. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.42. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.
September Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.257 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.170. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.257. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 97.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 96.85.
The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 112.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.94. First support is August's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2271 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2131. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2271. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0208 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0208. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.
The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.90. Second resistance is last-July's high crossing at 76.37. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0935 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 0.0936. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932.
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October gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1460.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1539.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1490.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1460.80.
September silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.906 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.593 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 17.490. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.906. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.593. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.754.
September copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is August's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 252.64.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down 5 1/2-cents at 3.71.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.70. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4.
December wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.79 1/4.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/4-cent at 4.00 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.26 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.39. First support is today's low crossing at 3.97 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.17 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.14 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
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November soybeans closed down 10 1/2-cents at 8.78 1/2.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.88 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.88 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $4.40 at 300.20.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 315.40. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 4-pts at 29.57.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidate some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 30.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.63. Second support is July's low crossing at crossing at 27.87.
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October hogs closed up $2.20 at $66.78.
October hogs closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed down $0.75 at 98.50.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.70. First support is today's low crossing at 98.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08.
October Feeder cattle closed up $5.83 at $133.38.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 137.82 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.93 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.82 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.49 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Tons of rain in the forecast is bearish for the grains, even with a lot of heat coming up.
Hot is bullish for ng but fundamentals are horrible, so its struggling.
If this heat in the forecast continues in the Midwest it WILL(not could) but WILL reduce corn yields, even with wet weather. This is because of heat fill.
I'll put together data and produce a comprehensive article addressing this later today.