KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, August 16, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previou 1.253M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous -0.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.27M; previous 1.220M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +4.1%; previous -6.1%)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 97.0; previous 98.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 90.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 111.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
N/A U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day
Monday, August 19, 2019
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday but well off session lows. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7756.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7756.40. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8051.75. First support isthe 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's huge loss. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2941.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2941.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday after testing support marked by the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. The Dow ended a back and forth session higher as investors balanced U.S.-China trade tensions and recession fears with upbeat data on retail sales and solid earnings from Dow component Walmart Inc. Stronger-than-expected retail sales figures also underpinned today's gains on expectations that consumers will continue to underpin the U.S. economy as indicated by gains in Walmart Inc. stock after the retailer topped Wall Street expectations. Walmart shares led Dow gainers with a 6.1% rise. But trade-related worries continued to linger after China said it would take unspecified steps in response to additional U.S. tariffs on imports from China. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,602.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,602.56. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 27,281.65. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-06/32's at 166-03.
September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 166-30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 162-07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-19.
September T-notes closed up 195-pts. At 130.040.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.238 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 131.110. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.307. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.238.
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September crude oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 58.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.82. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 61.02. First support is August's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99.
September heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.91. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 197.47. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177.42. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.
September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.254 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.254. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.333. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.10. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 96.89.
The September Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 112.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.91. First support is August's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2248 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2128. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2248. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0211 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0211. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this wee's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.81. Second resistance is last-July's high crossing at 76.37. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0936 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 0.0936. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0933.
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October gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low.Gold prices rebounded off early session losses to posted a modest gain and another finish at a more than six-year high due to safe haven buying against increased risks to the global economy.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1464.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1539.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1498.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1464.50.
September silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.906 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.634 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 17.490. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.906. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.634. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.802.
September copper closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.06 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 264.06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is August's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 252.64.
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December Corn closed up 3/4-cents at 3.71 3/4.
December corn closed fractionally higher on Thursday as the market tried to consolidate some of this week's huge sell off following a bearish USDA report released on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.11 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.11 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.69. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4.
December wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 4.74 1/2.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.06 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.04 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.36 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.23 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.97 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.14 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.14. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
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November soybeans closed down 7 1/4-cents at 8.70 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. Soybean exports saw a net cancellation of 4.0 million bushels in old crop sales last week but saw 30.0 million bushels in new crop sales, for a total of 26.0 million bushels. That was well ahead of the prior week’s total of 15.4 million bushels and trade estimates of 16.5 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 8.96 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8.96 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $3.10 at 296.80.
December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 6-pts at 29.49.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidate some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 30.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.66. Second support is July's low crossing at crossing at 27.87.
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October hogs closed down $1.78 at $65.00.
October hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.08. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $0.03 at 98.53.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.68. First support is today's low crossing at 98.13. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.38 at $133.75.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 137.82 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
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September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.82 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.38 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.