Thanks much for getting us started with the new trading week Larry!

I agree that we are cooler than Friday, which was quite a bit cooler than earlier in the week already. In typical NG fashion, we gapped lower than Friday's low on the open this evening.

However, we filled the day session gap with a slight bounce since then. This could be a weak gap and crap buying technical formation/signal(that I'm not impressed with) indicating we don't have many aggressive sellers down here.  Overnight weather maps will help determine what we do on Monday. I would much prefer to be long with this set up, considering the price and time of year but only on heat greatly increasing vs it diminishing the last few days.

Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, is a month passed its seasonal peak(based on historical averages). It's still the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days)

Seasonals have a strong tendency to bottom around the end of August! We can keep going lower with cooler weather and bearish fundamentals but prices are already very cheap down here.

 We've had 3  dead cat bounces this Summer from heat waves in weather forecasts but we come back down when the heat dwindles or passes.  

I should add that we are getting late enough in the cooling season, that the market will be placing less and less emphasis on temperatures. Extreme anomalies can still be powerful but outside of those there is a now a waning effect on prices. 

Weather(last)Thursday: Hotter

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36928/

Weather Friday: Much cooler!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36993/

Weather Saturday: Holding on to some of the cooler changes.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37057/

Weather Sunday: Adding to cooler changes.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37134/

Weather Monday: Still maintaining the cool changes, especially Midwest.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37203/

Tuesday Weather: Not much change.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37253/

Wednesday Weather: Still very cool midsection.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37336/

Friday Weather: Still very cool in the Midwest.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37483/

Previous weekly discussions on natural gas here. WOW!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36053/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35573/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/35104/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34604/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34053/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33668/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33132/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32675/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32177/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31521/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30641/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30007/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29419/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28858/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28351/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27780/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27305/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26861/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26506/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26105/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25678/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24111/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/23680

 EIA report last Thursday:  +49 bcf BULLISH!        

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending August 9, 2019   |  Released: August 15, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 22, 2019 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,738 Bcf as of Friday, August 9, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 357 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,849 Bcf. At 2,738 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Comments after the report:

           By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 10:33 a.m.            

             EIA report:  +49 bcf BULLISH!      

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                               By WxFollower - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:02 p.m.            

Mike, Grant et al,

 That +49 compared to the WSJ survey average of +61 making it 12 to the bullish side, which is easily the most bullish injection of the year. It was also the most bullish report since the one for the week ending 2/25/19, which also missed 12 to the bullish side.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By wxgrant - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:14 p.m.            

I knew something happened when I check my position at my dr. Check up. My December position is up pretty good this morning. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 12:34 p.m.            

Could this be a one time blip/exception?

NGI: Tetco Explosion, Texas Heat Seen Behind EIA’s 49 Bcf Storage Injection

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: NG week of 8/5/19            

                By metmike - Aug. 16, 2019, 12:27 p.m.            

From Natural Gas Intelligence:

After the close Thursday:    

EIA Storage Miss Brings NatGas Bulls Back into Game; Cash Mixed

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Friday morning:

Euro Model Cooler Overnight as Natural Gas Futures Retreat from Storage-Led Rally

                Re: Re: Re: NG week of 8/5/19            

         +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By metmike - Aug. 17, 2019, 2:13 p.m.            

NGI after the close Friday:

Bears Leave Natural Gas Futures Wounded; Cash Mixed as Heat Builds

One day after a huge storage miss sent natural gas futures skyrocketing, weather models trended cooler for the end of August, sending prices several cents lower to cap the week. The September Nymex gas futures contract fell 3.2 cents to settle Friday at $2.20/MMBtu, and October dropped 3 cents to $2.207.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

7 day Temperatures that  were used for last weeks EIA report......HOT! in the eastern half of the country!

7 day temperatures, ending last Friday that will go into this Thursdays report: Still very warm in much of the country. A bit cool southcentral.

August 18 update:

The dominant imposing factor for prices this year has been massive, record large injections that have increased supplies faster than any time in history and crushed prices.

We got a bounce in late May from intense heat in the Southeast.

Then the first 2 weeks of July, featured increasing heat in the extended forecasts, so natural got a huge lift. Cooler forecasts after that sent prices crashing back to life of contract lows in late July/early August.

Heat returning helped us to bounce again from those lows earlier this month to last Thursday..........when the forecast turned cooler again.

 The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts thru the rest of the Summer but the affects are dwindling with the waning Summer. Widespread, sustained heat needs to return to the forecast if prices have  hope of rebounding again.

Cash prices have been below $2 at times, so it's possible that we can still go lower than this but prices right now are pretty low historically, even considering the bearish fundamentals. Also, historically, natural gas has often put in a bottom during the upcoming time frame.

NG 7 days

Natural gas 3 months below

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009.

We should note from this chart that prices often bottom in late August. With prices this cheap/low its possible that natural gas may look to put in some sort of a bottom, even with bearish factors longer term pressuring prices. 

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Monday:

Volatile Session Ends With Natural Gas Futures Up Penny; Cash Mostly Higher

     5:11 PM    

Oppressive heat spanning most of the United States supported natural gas futures Monday, but cooler-trending long-range outlooks combined with another production record to send prices lower for most of the session. Most analysts considered $2.15 to be the battle line, and bulls came out victorious after a late technical rally lifted the September gas futures contract by a penny to $2.21/MMBtu, while October rose six-tenths of a cent to $2.213.

Tue wx updated

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Steady as Production Bumps Heads With LNG; Cash Mixed

     5:24 PM    

An increasingly bullish background for the natural gas market is building with the onset of commercial liquefied natural gas export operations along the Gulf Coast, but production is proving to be a tough barrier for prices to overcome. With long-term weather outlooks once again trending cooler, the September Nymex gas contract swung in and out of positive territory before going on to settle only eight-tenths of a cent higher Tuesday at $2.218/MMBtu. October rose six-tenths of a cent to $2.219.

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Wednesday:

Weak Cash, Bearish Weather Pressure Natural Gas Futures Ahead of EIA Report

     5:06 PM    

After netting barely 2 cents over the previous two sessions, natural gas futures took a more definitive turn on Wednesday as widespread summer heat appears to be drawing to a close. Following a steep sell-off in cash markets, the September Nymex futures contract tumbled 4.8 cents to $2.17, and October fell 4.2 cents to $2.177

metmike: What's interesting is that their early morning call and the market gave no hint that we would suddenly plunge lower. The overnight guidance was cooler but cooler guidance the previous couple of days was met with rising prices. The plunge, actually comes in numerous waves of selling, each one usually  testing or making new lows, followed by a bounce that fails to take out the previous wave's' high, then we work on the new wave lower. This was repeated around half a dozen times this morning.

Thursday Am comment NGI: Guidance Cooler, Natural Gas Futures Slightly Lower Ahead of EIA Data; Production Off Highs

               +59 BCF  =Neutral       

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

   Latest Release   Aug 22, 2019    Actual59B    Forecast60B      Previous49B

      https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                                                                               

NGI: EIA Reports Ho-Hum 59 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Injection; Futures Quiet

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending August 16, 2019   |  Released: August 22, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 29, 2019 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,797 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 369 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 103 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,900 Bcf. At 2,797 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

NGI after the close on Thursday:

Natural Gas Futures Slip as EIA Reports On-Target Storage Build; Cash Weakens Again

     5:06 PM    

Storage data that proved to be a non-event made for the third quiet trading session this week for natural gas futures prices. The September contract... 

From earlier Friday:

Weather Outlook Lacking Heat as Market Mulls EIA Data; Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

Closing comments Friday from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Futures Inch Lower as Fundamentals Hold Steady; Cash Slides Further

     5:35 PM    

The battle over $2.15 natural gas waged on Friday, with bears already pouring their pumpkin-spiced lattes as weather models maintained a fall-like U.S. pattern through early September. Near-record production and liquefied natural gas intake also held firm, leaving little reason for a significant move for the September Nymex futures contract, which settled Friday at $2.152/MMBtu, down seven-tenths of a cent on the day. October fell by the same amount to $2.156.