Back to Index Reply to Topic Like This Topic

stocks, bonds, oil and Iran

2 responses | 0 likes

Started by Richard - Aug. 18, 2019, 9:43 p.m.

I believe that we are in the middle of a Financial War with China and that if this was a chess game, the next move on our part is an attack on Iran. The reason I think that oil is going to $250 is because of a war in the middle east, The reason I think that the S&P is going to 1800 is because of a war in the middle east. The reason I think that Bonds will go to ZERO is because of many different reason and that this move will begin with a war in the middle east.

So my question is this, on a scale from 0 to 100 with 0 being, there is ZERO chance of a war in the middle east before January 1, 2020 and 100 being, you are 100% certain it will happen, I am curious how other traders here are feeling on this subject. It sure seems interesting with everything going on, that I am literally the only trader who thinks this.

Comments

Re: stocks, bonds, oil and Iran

0 likes

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 11:34 p.m.

Like Reply

Richard,

You have thought this now for over a decade.

Maybe you will be right eventually.

With regards to me guessing what the odds of a war with Iran are in the next 5 months, I don't know enough about it to make anything but a wild, uneducated guess and mainly because you are a generous contributor and really want to know..............so how about a range.

I would say that it's higher than 1 but less than 20. If I had to pick a number, it would be 2 with almost no confidence.

A war with Iran would be one of the worst things possible for this country and for Trump. Unless Iran commits some sort of unprovoked atrocity, it would be hard to convince the American people that this is a good idea.

One should ask the question:

If the US is in a war with Iran in 2020, will this hurt or help President Trump to get elected again?

I say hurt him because a war with Iran is not going to benefit the US in any way that can be justified. We sure don't want more brave American soldiers to give up their lives in another stupid Middle East conflict.