Trump is sure hard on the farmers markets
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Started by wglassfo - Aug. 19, 2019, 12:37 a.m.

So the big corn news, some time go, was Trump allowed a bunch of oil refineries to not blend ethanol in their products

This shut down a  bunch of ethanol distillers and caused severe hard ship amomgst workers and the rural economy

Futures dropped the limit in corn

But Trump keeps saying farmers will be the big winners in a trade war. He conveniently forgot the oil lobby big win for market share

Golly if I as a farmer or lived in the mid west and were allowed to have a  vote

I would be focused on all the lost markets which IMHO will never come back

Carter ruined the wheat market which has never recoverd to this day. In fact russia is a big exporter of wheat

Doesn't anybody pay atention to history when markets are lost. It takes a lot of hard work to find a new customer. One small mistake in a short time can lose that customer, along with all the hard work.

Those markets are gone and you will have a hard time convincing me they will ever return

I have a hard time believing anything Trump says about china. Heck, China is not even serious about talking trade

How well does that work for a trade war.


Comments
By metmike - Aug. 19, 2019, 1:14 a.m.
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Wayne,

We've been having that discussion on this thread........scroll way down to find it.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36092/


The government is already forcing refiners to blend 20 Billion, with a B of ethanol into  gasoline and just changed the laws so that 15% ethanol could be sold this Summer.

Too be upset and complain because some smaller refiners won't have to blend the maximum amount (based on them justifying it) does not look good on you guys.


It's like taking a gift that's 98% of the maximum and being ticked off that your gift is not 100%.


U.S. EPA proposes hike in biofuel mandate to 20.04 billion gallons in 2020: sources


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-biofuels/u-s-epa-proposes-hike-in-biofuel-mandate-to-20-04-billion-gallons-in-2020-sources-idUSKCN1SF2J6

By cliff-e - Aug. 19, 2019, 8:16 a.m.
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The tariff (aka tax on consumers) is costing US farmers foreign markets. One of many links.

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/us-farm-exports-to-china-seen-down-6-percent-in-fiscal-2019-vs-2018-usda

By wglassfo - Aug. 19, 2019, 9:44 a.m.
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I don't know what you see at the pump, but here

I see a choice of 5% 10% or no ethanol

To say the rins are nothing big

It certainly was to the refineries

The value dropped big time [I can't remember exactly so I won't dare say or I get in trouble]

If rins value dropped immediately following the announcement then somebody lost big time, which would be the farm market


We have lost 50 cents on the cash market since the announcement

I have yet to see 15% and I am not sure a final decision was made. I could be wrong, but I think it was just Trump talking.

Trump did talk about 15% but where is it sold. Proof is in sales

Are you sure your 98% number is accurate or just a number to make it sound good

Limit down is what counts in the market, not some made up number

As I said 50 cents is big

I wish I had the energy to look before starting this post

I lose my post most times if I minimize 


By metmike - Aug. 19, 2019, 7:48 p.m.
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Hi Wayne,

Actually, my 98% was a random hypothetical number to use as an example. In thinking about reality, to be more accurate, it might be more like 95% if one assumes a 1 billion gallon loss in ethanol sales out of nearly 18 billion(if those end up being the numbers in 2019)

With regards to the 15% sales going up, yes it appears from the graph below that they did go up right away(they didn't drop in the Summer like they had always done before).

This is actually from cliffs link.

https://ethanolrfa.org/2019/08/e15-sales-up-following-removal-of-summertime-barrier-but-rfs-refiner-exemptions-suppress-expansion/


E15 Sales Up Following Removal of Summertime Barrier, But RFS Refiner Exemptions Suppress Expansion

 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36092/