INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 23, 2019, 7:14 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, August 23, 2019  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 650K; previous 646K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +7.0%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.3)

 



 

 

  N/A               Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson

 

                    Hole economic policy symposium

 

                        

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7766.32. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7766.32 would open the door for additional gains off August's low and a possible run at July's high of 8151.75. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7766.32. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8151.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 7388.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2950.30 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2950.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2819.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 166-30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-18.



September T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.209 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 131.110. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.209. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.124. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 58.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 60.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.28. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.50.



October heating oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 164.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.84. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is August's low crossing at 175.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 164.31. 



October unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.44. First support is August's low crossing at 146.09. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42.



October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.259 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.259. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.338. First support is August's low crossing at 2.045. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.909.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 98.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.84. Second support is August's low crossing at 96.98.  



The September Euro was lower overnight as it resumed the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 110.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.64 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.64. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.56. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The September British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2423 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.2285. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2423. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0089 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0244 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0148. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0089. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.91. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68.



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0940 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0940. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0934.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1488.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1539.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1488.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1442.60.



September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.820 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.416. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.820. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.059. 



September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.69. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is August's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is monthly support crossing at 252.64.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.92 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.94 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.66 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4.     



December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 3/4-cents at 4.04 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.97 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.  



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were fractionally higher in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 8.96 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 8.96 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.



December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight while extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 306.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance level is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.76. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88. 



Comments
By metmike - Aug. 23, 2019, 3:06 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

The China tariff news crushed the grains today )-:

Weather remains bearish too.

More rains the next week and cool temps.

Still bearish ng but could turn less bearish next week.