Manufacturing contracts in August
13 responses | 0 likes
Started by gfn - Aug. 25, 2019, 9:53 p.m.

For the first time in over a decade manufacturing sector in the US contracted.  Regestring a reading of  49.9  from the purchase managers index anything under 50 equals contraction.

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 25, 2019, 10:21 p.m.
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You continue to display your amazing "gift" in the way that you can select a statistic and spin it so that it completely contradicts the reality of situations gfn.

Usually, we have Tim or another credible source provide clarity but I'll help this time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2019/07/10/in-trumps-first-30-months-manufacturing-up-by-314000-jobs-over-obama-what-states-are-hot/#1aa5e8b32677

   

   Manufacturing job growth has been concentrated in the Mountain States and the Midwest.  

Have you ever considered applying for a job at CNN or CNBC?

You can use your posts here for your resume............I'll highly recommend you for the job as you would fit right in(-:

 

By gfn - Aug. 25, 2019, 10:52 p.m.
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Did PMI come on st 49.9  ? And is 49.9 s contraction ?  Lastly is it the first time that has happened in over a decade? 


I understand when one can't dispute the facts one must kill the messenger.   

That philosophy will get one a job at Faux er Fox news.  


Looking forward to seeing you on Fox &  friends 

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 12:33 a.m.
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Here is the problem with the facts that you often state here.

You have a penchant for doing what us scientists and others call "cherry picking".


Ignoring all the other data and only reporting 1 stat to mislead people or even speculative information without a source. Here at MarketForum, this is why I've asked you (and others) to please provide your sources.

Mainly you though because of the misleading and speculative posts that define you...........always with an extreme bias towards one side. 


Previously, Tim was kind enough to do some homework in order to provide more comprehensive data under your initially misleading posts..........but you make it tougher to do this without the source/link.

Can you please start providing sources as I've asked you gfn?




By TimNew - Aug. 26, 2019, 8:25 a.m.
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The report on PMI is essentially correct, but as MM pointed out,  does not paint a very comprehensive picture. I give the ISM more weight, which is reporting slower growth while remaining in positive territory.  

The fact remains that MFG has been on a tear for the last few years and a contraction would likely be seen as a typical cyclic adjustment.  I'm sure the trade war is a factor.

MFG is about 20% of the economy while the service sector is a lions share and remains in solid growth territory.

I'd like to see an argument as to if and why the poster feels the PMI is an accurate representation of the overall picture. Otherwise,  he has to take ownership of his "cherry picking".

By TimNew - Aug. 26, 2019, 9:56 a.m.
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Oh look,  Durable Goods had a strong showing for the 2nd month in a row. And Core Capital Goods are strong and steady.  If we focus on this and ignore the fact that the always volatile aircraft orders had a strong influence,  we can conclude that MFG is alive and well.

Of course,  to do so requires that we ignore other data, some of which is positive, some of which is not. I prefer getting a bigger picture when it comes to assessing the current state of the economy. 


https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=498787&cust=us&year=2019&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:09 a.m.
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Thanks very much Tim.............

For the source/link and the more comprehensive look at the BIG/overall picture. 

By TimNew - Aug. 29, 2019, 9:17 a.m.
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Your heading "Manufacturing contracts  in August" can only be interpreted as a systemic contraction in Manufacturing, when the contraction was limited to the PMI. You used one measure of dozens to paint a picture that was not accurate. 

By gfn - Aug. 30, 2019, 4:16 p.m.
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Well you really need to go read your link even that story is flashing warning signs.

By bear - Aug. 31, 2019, 3:27 p.m.
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if manufacturing is stronger than 3 or 4 years ago,  but off only slightly from last year,  then i am not too concerned, yet.  

if the contraction gets larger,  and goes on for longer,  then i will be more worried.  

By joj - Aug. 31, 2019, 8:02 p.m.
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As far as I can tell bear is the only poster on MF who is unbiased.  I include myself and the moderator in that assessment.

By TimNew - Aug. 31, 2019, 10:45 p.m.
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TimNew: The fact remains that MFG has been on a tear for the last few years and a contraction would likely be seen as a typical cyclic adjustment.  I'm sure the trade war is a factor.


Bear: If manufacturing is stronger than 3 or 4 years ago,  but off only slightly from last year,  then i am not too concerned, yet.



Sam:As far as I can tell bear is the only poster on MF who is unbiased.  

By TimNew - Aug. 31, 2019, 10:51 p.m.
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Well you really need to go read your link even that story is flashing warning signs.


Oh please tell me what these "warning signs" are..


By metmike - Sept. 1, 2019, 1:17 a.m.
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            Speak for yourself joj.............actually, I wish that you would be a responsible adult and speak for yourself. This is my 6th time asking you to respond.



joj,


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37245/

                By metmike - Aug. 22, 2019, 2:25 p.m.            

I'm still waiting for you to respond to my question about why you made up this statement about me. Is this the 5th time that I asked now?


"But criticizing Obama is WHAT Mike?   

'Cause you were dishing it out pretty good there for the last few years."

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