It seems rather obvious that china can not source all their beans without coming to the USA
However, down 58% means they will buy else where until there is no more else where and then the USA
In the long term the USA share will dwindle as china investment, famps up other sources of beans
Some time, sooner or later, the USA will be looking for the small markets and a huge surplus of grain in NA
I know and so do many othrs this china thing had to be done
But, it is taking a heavy toll on NA farmers and everybody that depends on NA farmer spending
John Deere reports sales are off by a huge amount in the USA. I think CNH must have found some off shore markets as they don't seem to report the same smaller sales numbers
I could be wrong as this is simply memory
In Canada we don't have the grain support payments and to make maters worse, by 2022 we will be paying approx. 50 cent/gal of extra pump fuel tax on top of existing taxes to pay for the green deal
China gets us on grain price and our own gov't adds another tax
We already lost most of our beef industry
Will canadian grains be next???
GRRRR
seems the libs screaming "I want impeachment, I want recession, I want socialism, I want Bernie, I want whatever free stuff is available are not in a good mood this am....as Trump is talking deals with Japan, China, France, North Korea and shocker.....IRAN. Go get them Trump. Sure is odd to compare the msm's reporting v listening live
Thanks Wayne and mcfarm!
"In Canada we don't have the grain support payments and to make maters worse, by 2022 we will be paying approx. 50 cent/gal of extra pump fuel tax on top of existing taxes to pay for the green deal."
Elect a democrat, as it looks likely in 2020 and watch the carbon taxes soar along with the price of fuel and all energy as additional climate taxes are imposed on the entire energy sector.
The fraudulent reason will be given as the proceeds are needed to offset the damages that CO2 and climate change are causing.............the reality is that we are having a climate optimum and the benefits greatly outweigh the negatives.
The legit reason is that it will curb the use of fossil fuels because they will become very expensive. This will help to increase renewables by a small fraction as it KILLS the US economy because the life blood of every developed country is directly correlated with the amount of cheap, reliable and abundant fossil fuels that it has access to.
Make them much more expensive, and everbody's disposable income goes way down. Industrial costs and energy expenses for business's go thru the roof(this must be passed on).
This is an irrefutable law of economics and energy that will happen with the Green New Deal. Not probably will happen or even might happen. Even in its most conservative application by the less extreme dems, the Green New Deal will destroy the strength of our economy and drop the US out of the being one of the top economies in the world.
Keep in mind that China, for instance as per the agreement in the CLimate Accord, is allowed to continue to increase their use of fossil fuels thru the year 2030................which they intend to do(though the commitments are not legal).
So as we cut our use, they increase theirs even more(they emit much more than we do already).
Their economy grows...............the US economy shrinks and CO2, which is well mixed in the global atmosphere, continues to go higher.
Based on the Climate Accord, implemented exactly, 100% to the letter (with the US signed up) this is what will happen.
The only way for that to NOT happen, is for us to NOT be part of the CLimate Accord and NOT have anything to do with a Green New Deal.
The saddest thing about what I just stated is that this is not just some speculation based on an opinion that is viewing the reality from just one side and ignoring the other sides approach or strategy.
It is based on reading the entire Climate Accord(much of it numerous times) and looking at many of the Green New Deal plans(see my post on Bernie Sanders) and being open minded to account for contributing elements from both sides.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37437/
1. There is no climate crisis!
2. Developing clean renewable's and conserving/using less energy is very good. The Green New Deal would be catastrophic to our economy and way of life...........99.5% chance.
Sorry if that involved some politics but its our economy that's at stake, as well as prices we pay for energy.
metmike: Nobody believes anything anymore from Trump when it comes to this issue but I have been thinking more about it.
It's been clear that China will just wait until the new US president is elected, then things can go back to the way they were.
But wait, despite everybody (from one side) insisting that Trump has no idea what he is doing, he most certainly does know, even if he's uncertain about specific reactions along the way.
This is how Trump negotiates. He leaves his opponents having no clue what is coming next for one thing and appears like a loose cannon willing to risk everything in a game of chicken that no other politician would push to the end of the cliff but he gives the appearance of being very willing to go off the cliff with you because he is so crazy.
With North Korea, for instance, his first year was spent attacking, name calling and taunting their leader and calling his bluffs with threats to obliterate them. One wondered who was more nuts between the 2.
I highly doubt he intended to do any of that stuff. It was all show so that his position at the bargaining table would be more powerful.
With China, he is doing the same thing but in a different way. The entire world is wondering how far will Trump take this and thinking he has no off switch. All he cares about is completely winning this war, no matter what the price is.
I am pretty sure now that will not be the case.
More important than winning the trade war with China for Trump is being re elected in 2020. Much more important in fact.
To have the current situation unresolved going into the election next year is going to make what already looks unlikely, Trump getting elected again, next to impossible.
Of course he knows this. And of course he knows that China will NEVER agree entirely to his terms before the election because they can just wait for another year and get everything their way.
China knows that not agreeing will help defeat Trump, which they want badly. But their country is hurting badly right now. The press does not tell you this because they are anti Trump and act like they have the best interest of China rather than the US in mind with much of their coverage.
Trump WILL make a deal with China before the election because it will be his ONLY chance to do it. Not only if he is not elected again.............which means, he will at least be able to end his presidency by claiming a victory on this most controversial topic but because the failure to do it, dooms his chances to be elected again.
The president of China must know this too.
The deal that Trump makes with China will be touted as a huge victory for Trump and the US.............even if it only accomplishes part of what he wanted to accomplish. Even if its just a fraction..............so that he can spin it positive to be elected in 2020.
And that's what will happen. China is not going to contradict the spin either. They will be thrilled to go along with the spin because it gives them a good deal and allows Trump to look good...........a win/win.
In 2014, when Obama claimed a huge victory by getting China to sign up with the Climate Accord (other countries were all concerned that China was not on board), the agreement they made with Obama was that China would only consider cutting emissions, starting in 2030(in 15 years) and they would be considered a developing country...........so they GET money not pay money.
What the heck? Who wouldn't agree to those terms. It was like, hey can you join our club. You don't have to do anything but take our money.........just let us use your name as being part of our club.
Nothing but a marketing scheme to sell the Climate Accord and a fake accomplishment. Man, it worked great too. Biden, even today touts this as the major accomplishment in his administration regarding foreign affairs and how they worked diplomatically to get China to cooperate.
Get ready for Trump to do a similar thing in the next year. Obviously the dynamics are different and China will have to make some concessions, so there will be some progress and it will be better than the way things before the tariff war but China will probably give up less than half, maybe even much less than what Trump is asking for.
And Trump will embellish about how it's the best trading deal in history.
And the MSM will tell us how it does nothing, how it ruined the markets, hurt US citizens and wrecked our relationship with China forever to get nothing.
And Trump will keep telling us how he was the first president in history to get China to agree to US terms because of his deal.
We just have to read the terms before deciding how much was actually accomplished.
It's possible that it was worth it. My guess is that under the next Dem president, those terms will not be honored.
I have to disagree some what
China knows that Trump and the stk market go hand in hand
Why??? I have no idea why Trump is so bonkers about the stk market
Less than 1/2 own any stks
Pension money in stks might be an incentive, but would that be enough to vote Trump??
China may see this as a win with no deal
The USA is weakened no matter who wins
There is no unpside for china to sign a deal. It would have to be a big win for china to sign a deal. Then china would immediately ignore the terms of the deal.. Who will enforce the terms. Nobody
They are willing to take some pain for long term gain
They are willing to let Trump tweet all he wants
They just have to sit and ignore him
Don't forget, the whole country believes they will/must win
Loss of face is everything in china
If I was china I would not sign a deal. The more Trump tweets the more he looks like a desperate man willing to do anything for a deal
The best way to make him look weak is no deal.
That means [in Chinese culture] Trump is losing face.
Just a few reasons why I would disagree
one of the best on China, Michael Pillsbury was on TV tonite. His opinion is that espionage is at the center of China's new attitude. They have decided Trump will not bend on fair trade and more importantly they have decided he will be reelected...both good news for America and Trump
