KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)
10:00 AM ET. August Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -12)
Shipments Idx (previous -13)
10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 128.8; previous 135.7)
Expectation Idx (previous 112.2)
Present Situation Idx (previous 170.9)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 614.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 243.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2754.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. July Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 437.778M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.732M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.072M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.312M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.123M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.61M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.987M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.091M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, August 29, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.0%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +4.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 209K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1674000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -54K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 420.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 818.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 599.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 108.3)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous +2.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2797B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +59B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 30, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 47.8; previous 44.4)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 92.1; previous 98.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.7)
3:00 AM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7763.60 would open the door for additional gains into early-September. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7763.60. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8151.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7353.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's rebound off the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2948.21 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2948.21. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2809.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 170-26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 167-15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 170-26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-01.
September T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.016 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 131.195. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.016. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.175.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If October extends the decline off last-week's high, August's low crossing at 50.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 60.93. First support is Monday's low crossing at 52.96. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.50.
October heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends Monday's decline, August's low crossing at 175.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.69. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is August's low crossing at 175.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 164.31.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.40. First support is August's low crossing at 146.09. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.251 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.251. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.338. First support is August's low crossing at 2.045. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.909.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's sharp decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.11 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 98.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 96.98.
The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.61 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.51. First support is the August 1st low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2410 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2307. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2410. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's key reversal up. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0089 is the next downside target. If September extends last-Friday's rally, August's high crossing at 1.0384 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0144. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0089.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.95. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 75.07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0935 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0943. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0935.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1499.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1558.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1499.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1450.50.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.956 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 17.805. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 17.906. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.956. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.178.
September copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 249.10. Second support is monthly support crossing at 234.12.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 4.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4.
December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 4.02.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.51 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.97 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.11. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight while extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 306.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 310.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 295.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance level is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 First support is the overnight low crossing at 28.39. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $4.50 at $63.80.
October hogs closed limit up on Monday after President Donald Trump said China wants to return to the negotiating table, in the wake of another round of tariffs announced Friday by Beijing and Washington.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.02. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $1.60 at 101.00.
October cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 105.89. First support is the reaction low crossing at 97.78. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.85 at $134.38.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.21 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.21. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.63 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.68 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.68 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Corn condition +1%, beans +2% after great rains last week and non threatening weather ahead. Watching week 2 to see if the pattern morphs colder and introduces a frost threat.
Cool enough to be bearish natural gas.