KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 614.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 243.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2754.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. July Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 437.778M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.732M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.072M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.312M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.123M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.61M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.987M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.091M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, August 29, 2019
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.0%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +4.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 209K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1674000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -54K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 420.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 818.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 599.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 108.3)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous +2.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2797B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +59B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 30, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 47.8; previous 44.4)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 92.1; previous 98.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.5)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.7)
3:00 AM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7762.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7762.98. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8051.75. First support isthe 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, August's low crossing at 2776.30 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the mid-August low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2947.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2947.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2337.00.
The Dow U.S. closed lower on Tuesday, reversing morning gains, as hopes for a resolution of the U.S.-China trade fight began to fade while fears of a global economic slowdown mount. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,596.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,067.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,596.46. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-23/32's at 166-01.
September T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday negating Monday's downside reversal. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 172-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 167-15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 172-04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 159-23.
September T-notes closed up 145-pts. At 131.075.
September T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.020 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 131.195. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.020. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.177.
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October crude oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, the late-July high crossing at 58.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 57.47. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.82. First support is August's low crossing at 50.52. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99.
October heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.71. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 197.47. First support is August's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 158.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162.42. First support is August's low crossing at 146.09. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 130.42.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.251 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.251. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.338. First support is August's low crossing at 2.045. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.
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The September Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.11 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high of 98.46 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 98.46. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 97.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.11.
The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 110.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.51. Second resistance is the June high crossing at 114.86. First support is August's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The September British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2411 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2411. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2615. First support is August's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0144. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0089.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.94. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.
The September Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0935 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0972. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing 0.0935. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0918.
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October gold closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1499.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1558.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1499.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1450.70.
September silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the January-2018 high crossing at 18.423 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.975 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 18.185. Second resistance is the January-2018 high crossing at 18.423. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.975. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.186.
September copper closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.28 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 258.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 265.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 249.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 234.12.
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December Corn closed down 2 1/4-cent at 3.66.
December corn closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.65 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.63 3/4.
December wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 4.77 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 4.04 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.49 1/2. First support is August's low crossing at 3.97 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 5.11.
December Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.11. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
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November soybeans closed down 8 1/4-cents at 8.59.
November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.96 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $1.90 at 296.70.
December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 306.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 310.30. First support is today's low crossing at 294.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 32-pts at 28.37.
December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is August's low crossing at 27.88. Second support is May's low crossing at crossing at 26.96.
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October hogs closed down $0.58 at $63.23.
October hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.21. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.74. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed down $1.23 at 99.78.
October cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 105.75. First support is August's low crossing at 97.78. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.88 at $132.50.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.12 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.12. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
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December coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.64 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.