grain
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Started by mcfarm - May 20, 2018, 8:09 p.m.

corn up 5   beans up 20

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Re: grain
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By Jim_M - May 21, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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The 6-10 and 10-14 weather maps look drier than they did on Friday too.  

Re: Re: grain
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By metmike - May 21, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
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mcfarm,

You were exactly right about how the China news effected the markets.....but was a knee jerk reaction so far.  

Jim,

You would think with such a bullish 6-10/8-14 day yesterday that the gaps higher last night in everything would be followed up by more strength. The problem is that this guidance was automated and the actual pattern features more rain. The major heat is west of the Cornbelt and the dome is not in the Cornbelt. In fast, the Cornbelt is in either Northwest flow, that features fronts coming thru the Midwest keeping the heat tame and bringing the chance of precip or on part of the periphery of the dome that features active storms.

By Jim_M - May 21, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Makes you wonder why they even post a weekend extended weather map if it is off that far.  

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 10:16 a.m.
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A strengthening or shifting northeast in the location of the dome and it can turn pretty bullish.

The buy corn/sell beans mentality of the market has now reversed. Those doing so are covering..............now buying beans and selling corn. 


The gap higher in beans is holding, while corn has been lower and closed its gap higher overnight. Greenman, in 2002 taught me about one of his favorite trades....gap and crap he called it. 

When the market gaps higher or lower on the open, then fills the gap, like corn did, its a good short. 

I'm not selling here though. Corn has too many bullish fundamentals and the only reason for this sell signal is a reaction to the China news, NOT a fundamental shift in corns dynamics.

By bcb - May 21, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Think maybe some are saying rain makes grain.

Bring the heat on.

Corn conditions report I think next week 

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:02 a.m.
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Beans holding the gap higher solidly and testing the highs. Corn back to the plus side.


mcfarm,

Thanks for you weekend post on China that kicked this tread off. I'm busy taking care of my 93 year old dad, here in Detroit and would have missed that.......and thought that last nights huge gap higher was entirely from the very dry NWS extended guidance. 


Would have thought it odd that beans were so much higher than corn though.

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:22 a.m.
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bcb,

Thanks for the heads up on the first corn crop rating, possibly next week.


What do you think the % planted will be this afternoon?

By bcb - May 21, 2018, 12:43 p.m.
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78-81% corn

I like what I'm hearing up North the last few days

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 12:56 p.m.
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Thanks,

Export inspections were good again for corn, beans picked way up and wheat poor.


https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 1:02 p.m.
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The latest GFS has alot rain developing later in week 2, after a dry period of more than a week in some places(which would be much more than a week for spots that missed on latest rains). This would be bearish if it really was going to happen. 

Total 2 week rains below. 

Forecast Hour:  372
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 1:08 p.m.
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Theres an upper level ridge early in week 2 over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest thats transient and does not last more than a few days.


Day 8 below, then day 12 below that.

gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s.gif

gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht

      gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht_s.gif