Good article mcfarm, thanks!
I have read so many articles about who is winning, who is hurting, so many stats my head is about to bust
The latest is because of china tariffs and this HK episode turning ugly that Vietnam is the new manufacturing Hub
Vietnam and other Asian countries are even buying fruit from china and then processing and putting it in cans for Wal Mart and other retailers, which was a surprise for me as I thought Vietnam was manufacturing.
So will tariffs apply to Vietnam/Asian rim countries in the future???
Fought a war in Vietnam but big business goes where the money is, so who cares except how much money can be made etc. Heck we are buddies with Germany Japan so why not Vietnam??
What I think
This trade war will drag on past 2020, or Trump signs a bad deal and tries to tout the deal as a big win for the USA. China will drag their heels and unless the deal is so much in their favour, nothing gets done before 2020. Mostly/exactly what MM has said
If the trade war does drag on, world trade has to be affected as in a slow down. I think we can see the slow down today.
Most people agree there will be no winners as this thing drags on, except the farmers think they will win. Why?? I have no idea
Thus a world recession seems to be the end result.
Then it switchs to who can survive a world recession
In the end the USA will agree to terms, but not anything close to what they want. The Chinese will immediately break every agreement in the deal. We just don't know the time line, but we can be 100% sure china will not do business according to anything they sign. They have broken every agreement in the past [The WTO being the most excessive of all] So what makes a person think they will do something different in the future
Contracts, agreements on paper mean nothing to them. What can you do, shoot missiles at them??? to enforce compliance??
The USA will declare victory, as they usually do, but won't take credit for the world recession and will watch china ignore every part of a signed deal
This is partly why I say the USA will not win this trade war..