Weather
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Started by metmike - May 21, 2018, 10:22 a.m.

Next 7 days of rain are still a big item.  Not as much as this time frame last week........with some dry pockets(MO/IL for instance)

Rains his month have been OVER forecast by every model, for everytime frame and by every forecaster.

Near the end of this period, things are drying out........leading to a drier period in week 2. This could be setting the stage for bullish weather in June:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day2.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day3.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

Comments
Re: Weather
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By mcfarm - May 21, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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rain? here at the home place we are sitting at 1/10th for May....Farms south has pockets of water standing and to the north got a more appreciated 1 inch...so even in a small area its all over the place.....many growers got stuck with not enough moisture to germinate and are still waiting

Re: Weather
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By metmike - May 21, 2018, 10:50 a.m.
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I hear you mcfarm

We got tons of rain in SW.Indiana and  here in MI but there are some sizeable dry pockets in the Eastern Cornbelt(IL/IN has been mostly dry)

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal.

Note that IA and MN have missed alot of the rain in the last week. This was the wet spot, that was the farthest behind in corn planting............some corn planting should have been done there.

Re: Re: Weather
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By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:05 a.m.
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Strong to severe Thunderstorm outlook from the Severe Storm Center:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

                                            

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Guyer/Goss
Issued: 21/1251Z
Valid: 21/1300Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Darrow
Issued: 21/0416Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Darrow
Issued: 21/0706Z
Valid: 23/1200Z - 24/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Darrow
Issued: 21/0734Z
Valid: 24/1200Z - 28/1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe t
By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:11 a.m.
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Latest radar loop. Hopefully mcfarm gets some:


https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php


Time of images: 1328 UTC 05/21/2018
through 1438 UTC 05/21/2018

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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mcfarm's weather forecast(just se of Indianapolis). Best chance today with this system:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=222&y=128&site=ind&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=223&map_y=128#.WwLh338h03E

Today

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm.  Cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind around 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers.  Cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 11am and 2pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. 

Tuesday Night

A 10 percent chance of showers before 8pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 8 mph. 

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind around 6 mph. 

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 83.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 63.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Saturday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Sunday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.


By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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Trying out a new graph of mcfarms weather for the next 48 hours:



By metmike - May 21, 2018, 1:11 p.m.
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            The latest GFS has alot rain developing later in week 2, after a dry period of more than a week in some places(which would be much more than a week for spots that missed on latest rains). This would be bearish if it really was going to happen. 

Total 2 week rains below. 

Forecast Hour:  372
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

                                    


           

Theres an upper level ridge early in week 2 over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest thats transient and does not last more than a few days.


Day 8 below, then day 12 below that.

gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s.gif

gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht

      gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht_s.gif

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 1:15 p.m.
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If the upper level ridge early in week holds and defines the new pattern.............with all the dry spots likely at that time..........it becomes very bullish.


If his were 100% weather, then corn would have punched well above last nights highs. 

Instead, we are seeing buying beans, selling corn/wheat.........reversing the previous trade of selling beans and buying corn/wheat.

So its mostly China with some weather, as corn is still higher on the day.

By mcfarm - May 21, 2018, 2:42 p.m.
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metmike, you have put a wealth of info up today....thanks for your efforts

By Jim_M - May 21, 2018, 3:49 p.m.
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I concur with mcfarm.  The ability to add those weather charts is nice too.  


From a past weekend weather perspective, rain was in the forecast almost all weekend, yet I didn't get enough to get my car wet.  South of me got quite a bit, but not a drop in the Akron area.  

By mcfarm - May 21, 2018, 6:34 p.m.
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severe thunderstorm warning.....then 2/10ths....better than a kick in the teeth

By metmike - May 21, 2018, 11:31 p.m.
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Sorry to hear that you got shortchanged again mcfarm.


Glad to hear that you guys are getting alot out of this information and reading that brings me joy.

If I wasn't  taking care of my 93 year old dad in Detroit these next 2 weeks, there would have been even more stuff.

Please continue to be active posters here, which is why I'm doing it.