Next 7 days of rain are still a big item. Not as much as this time frame last week........with some dry pockets(MO/IL for instance)
Rains his month have been OVER forecast by every model, for everytime frame and by every forecaster.
Near the end of this period, things are drying out........leading to a drier period in week 2. This could be setting the stage for bullish weather in June:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day2.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day3.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Total accumulation
rain? here at the home place we are sitting at 1/10th for May....Farms south has pockets of water standing and to the north got a more appreciated 1 inch...so even in a small area its all over the place.....many growers got stuck with not enough moisture to germinate and are still waiting
I hear you mcfarm
We got tons of rain in SW.Indiana and here in MI but there are some sizeable dry pockets in the Eastern Cornbelt(IL/IN has been mostly dry)
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal.
Note that IA and MN have missed alot of the rain in the last week. This was the wet spot, that was the farthest behind in corn planting............some corn planting should have been done there.
Strong to severe Thunderstorm outlook from the Severe Storm Center:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Guyer/Goss Issued: 21/1251Z Valid: 21/1300Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Darrow Issued: 21/0416Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Darrow Issued: 21/0706Z Valid: 23/1200Z - 24/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook | Forecaster: Darrow Issued: 21/0734Z Valid: 24/1200Z - 28/1200Z Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe t |
Latest radar loop. Hopefully mcfarm gets some:
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php
Time of images: 1328 UTC 05/21/2018 through 1438 UTC 05/21/2018 |
mcfarm's weather forecast(just se of Indianapolis). Best chance today with this system:
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 11am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind 5 to 8 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind around 6 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Saturday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.
The latest GFS has alot rain developing later in week 2, after a dry period of more than a week in some places(which would be much more than a week for spots that missed on latest rains). This would be bearish if it really was going to happen.
Total 2 week rains below.
Forecast Hour: 372
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif
Theres an upper level ridge early in week 2 over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest thats transient and does not last more than a few days.
Day 8 below, then day 12 below that.
gfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht
If the upper level ridge early in week holds and defines the new pattern.............with all the dry spots likely at that time..........it becomes very bullish.
If his were 100% weather, then corn would have punched well above last nights highs.
Instead, we are seeing buying beans, selling corn/wheat.........reversing the previous trade of selling beans and buying corn/wheat.
So its mostly China with some weather, as corn is still higher on the day.
metmike, you have put a wealth of info up today....thanks for your efforts
I concur with mcfarm. The ability to add those weather charts is nice too.
From a past weekend weather perspective, rain was in the forecast almost all weekend, yet I didn't get enough to get my car wet. South of me got quite a bit, but not a drop in the Akron area.
severe thunderstorm warning.....then 2/10ths....better than a kick in the teeth
Sorry to hear that you got shortchanged again mcfarm.
Glad to hear that you guys are getting alot out of this information and reading that brings me joy.
If I wasn't taking care of my 93 year old dad in Detroit these next 2 weeks, there would have been even more stuff.
Please continue to be active posters here, which is why I'm doing it.