Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:32 p.m.

Happy Labor Day! Do something nice for somebody.......... Then think about how you made their world a tiny bit better!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.

See Hurricane Dorian updates here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37474/

Watching Dorian in the Southeast. Cotton market was nervous after being annihilated in GA by Michael last year. Cotton ratings also dropped 6% because of the TX drought. 

OJ market dialed in 10c worth of hurricane risk premium earlier last week, then crashed on Friday when the models showed the hurricane going east of the orange groves.  OJ and cotton threats almost gone. See OJ market discussion.  Latest track of Dorian is barely far enough off the coast of FL for them to dodge the hurricane bullet.........but it could still shift back west enough to clobber areas just inland.

As expected, crop ratings increased on Monday from rains last week....... +1% corn, +2% beans.  The increase in beneficial CO2 continues to result in crops doing much better than expected too.

 Not much but some rain coming  to the Midwest the next 5 days......then wetter.


No frost threat.

For natural gas: 
Temperatures will warm up in week 2 with enough heat to generate significant cooling demand in some places.


 
Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 


 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





US Weather Current Temperatures Map


US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:32 p.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.


Heat in the Southwest to West Coast. Warming Midwest.

   

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:34 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Hot in some places, especially West and south! Very cool NorthCentral.......that spreads east!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:35 p.m.
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We have passed the peak in Summer temperatures based on climatological/historical averages by well OVER  a month now.

Heat in the West/South! Cool highs NorthCentral to Northeast but no chance for a freeze/frost.




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:37 p.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Watching to see where slow moving Dorian goes in the Southeast this week.

Latest is far enough off the FL coast for the Sunshine state to dodge the hurricane bullet........but it might track farther west in further model runs still .........so the East Coast of FL is not completely out of the woods yet!


Cold shots Midwest to Northeast, especially northern tier but not cold enough for a freeze.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:38 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Heaviest hurricane rains stay in the Atlantic  but some along the coasts. 

Not much rain in the Midwest but picking up north next weekend.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:39 p.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.


Slight risk in  few spots today.

 

  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

 


 

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 09/01/19 - 12Z 09/02/19
By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:40 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

  Some risk with strong cold front.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0900Z
Valid: Mon 09/02 1200Z - Fri 09/06 1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur          within 25 miles of any 
By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:41 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:43 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


A little more humidity/moisture pooling up the the front in the Upper Plains/Western Cornbelt.


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:43 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

A big chunk of the central and eastern corn belt got rain 2 weeks ago so corn and bean crop ratings improved last week. Not much rain last week though but no heat, so what will ratings be on Tuesday's crop report?  Maybe not much change to tiny drop.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#


      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:44 p.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of heat  being a factor in evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during this month.

The amount of drought on THIS week's update barely shrank in the Midwest(though there were good rains the prior week) but it got worse for TX cotton.


The map below is updated on Thursdays.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Drought Monitor for conus

                                                                                      

                                        

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:46 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:


Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!


Last 

Monday: Heat ridge in the Southeast is stronger today.......carried on a couple more solutions and a slight majority.

Tuesday: On this model, the heat ridge in the Southeast is more impressive again today. Trough in the west. This couplet, if amplified more could lead to some heavy rains between the 2 features with a decent jet stream................at a time of year that is often pretty dry.

Wednesday: Less ridging in the south on this model today. More zonal flow northern tier.

Thursday: A tad more ridging in the Southeast. No frost threat.

Friday: Much less ridging in the Southeast. More troughing Great Lakes.

Saturday: Much deeper trough, even south of the Midwest.........at least on this run, with the heat ridge only in the far south...........on the average. The other models don't look this cool.

Sunday: MUCH MUCH stronger ridge in the Southeast. More like other models. Yesterday's solution from the Canadian ensembles looks like it was out to lunch.

Monday: Big heat ridge Southeast on half the solutions.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 17, 2019 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:49 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:


Last Thursday: Where will the deep trough in Canada  and associated strong jet stream into at least the northern tier of the US be? Potential heat ridge farther south of this feature if it would stay west or track zonally along the US border.  Solutions here strongly favor a buckling of the jet deeply into the central of the country.

Friday: How deeply into the US will the big trough in Canada penetrate? Where will this be at? Northcentral US looks likes the most likely. 

Saturday: Preferred position for the big upper level trough today is around the Hudson Bay in Canada, extending pretty far south across the US border.

Sunday: Not clear. Upper level trough in Canada, strong jet underneath, potential heat ridge somewhere in the US.

Monday: Upper level ridging, maybe in the Southeast. No longer the pronounced troughing in the N/C US.  Not as cool as last weeks maps.

Tuesday: This model has a bit more northern stream potential than the Canadian model.......at least on this particular run. That's what's needed to have frost potential.

Wednesday: More zonal look to jet stream along the northern tier vs an amplied pattern that would be needed to pull down much colder air(which is absent in the US today)

Thursday: Ridge in the south could expand. Upper level trough/low Pacific Northwest is agreed on by most models...........favors downstream ridge amplification if the northern stream doesn't interfere which looks to be the case.

Friday: Alot of spread and movement. Nothing extreme/unusual.

Saturday: Much different than the Canadian model with the heat ridge pronounced, pumped up on this run of this model, along with the potential of a slug of heat.......for a few days.

Sunday: Yesterday, this model was much warmer than the Canadian model, today, it's not as warm. We went from an upper ridge in the upper Great Lakes to a weak trough today. 

Monday: Ridge southeast. Trough in Canada

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:50 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.


Last Saturday: Center for the positive anomaly is now in SW Canada to just off the coast to the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream negative anomaly centered in the Great Lakes. This is usually a pretty good couplet for cool temperatures in the Midwest. 

Sunday: Weaker positive anomaly off the West Coast of North America, weak negative anomaly around the Midwest.  Not a strong signal for heat but neither is it especially cool.

Monday: The only significant anomaly is a positive one off the Pac NW Coast.  Otherwise, near average and nothing strong to key off of.  Probably a strong jet stream along the northern tier. 

Tuesday:  Positive anomaly again is off the Pac NW Coast. Slightly below average heights and cyclonic flow in the center of the country........so wet and cool.

Wednesday: Same as Tuesday. Positive anomaly off Pac NW Coast, modest positives along the East Coast, negative with trough in the middle of the country where is would be wet and cool.

Thursday: Similar to Wednesday. Positive anomaly off the Pac NW Coast. Negative anomaly from Hudson Bay, extended to a weakness in the Midwest. Slight positive in the Southeast, possible ridging ahead of the deep trough.

Friday: Still the modest positive anomaly off the Pac Northwest Coast. Upper trough to the east has so many variations, that it doesn't show up with that big of a negative departure in 500 mb heights average in any one place. 

Saturday: Modest positive anomaly but growing/extensive all the way north across North America........modest negative anomaly downstream from north of the Hudson Bay, southward. If these anomalies increase in magnitude, they would make for a nice couplet to deliver northern stream driven cold waves southward after the first week in September. 

Sunday: Yesterdays couplet is gone. Slight negative anomaly sw Canada. Modest positive anomalies US, downstream so probably warming up in the middle of the country. 

Monday:  Similar to Sunday. No strong anomaly disparities to key off of.  Maybe just zonal flow across the US, especially northern half and not as cool in the Midwest as recent week 2 maps. 

Tuesday: Negative anomaly now just off the US West Coast. Could be associated with an active jet stream aimed at parts of the Midwest? Modest positive anomalies downstream. Another positive anomaly in Alaska is going to have to get some/better cooperation downstream to connect strongly enough in order to deliver a blast of chilly air thats cold enough for frost in the Upper Midwest. There is a slight weakness in E.Canada that has potential.

Wednesday: Anomalies are pretty close to average everywhere. So, flat zonal flow in the north and no extremes with ridging favored far south and an upper level trough in Canada which is typical in September. 

Thursday: Negative anomaly Pacific Northwest stands out/is agreed upon. Modest positive anomalies downstream, some ridging in the south likely.

Friday: Negative anomaly Pac NW as vanished. Modest positive anomalies most places.

Saturday: New positive anomaly in the Great Lake and vicinity with heat in the Midwest late week 2(after a shot of chill a week previous to that).

Sunday: Positive anomaly in the Great Lakes is now no longer. Not much to key off of.\

Monday: Positive Northeast....slight.  Slight negative Gulf of Alaska, actually too small to be meaningful. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:51 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.



Last Monday: No strong signal or suggestion of anomalous type weather.

Tuesday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA has a wide spread as that indice is very sensitive to the pattern/positions of an upper level trough and ridge in Western North America.

Wednesday: AO drops to near 0. NAO near 0 and PNA drops from positive to near 0 at the end of 2 weeks. Nothing at all suggested out of the ordinary.

Thursday: AO drops from positive to near 0. NAO near 0 and PNA stays bit positive with a wide spread its sensitive to the upper level trough off the NW Coast's position relative to features surrounding it.

Friday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA a bit above 0.

Saturday: AO, NAO and PNA all slightly positive. Late week 2 is uncertain.

Sunday: AO, NAO drop to near 0. PNA slight positive. Nothing to go on.

Monday: Same as Sunday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

By metmike - Sept. 2, 2019, 4:53 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 


Last : Thursday: Should be pretty wet(rains dry up in the 8-14 day period) and very cool in the middle and again, temps chilly enough for some 30's at the end of week 1 and start of week 2 in the Plains to Upper Midwest. How much warmth along the East Coast. The West Coast looks very warm to hot.

Friday: We should be drying out in many places. Temps remaining cool in the middle(but not as cool as week 2 progresses) with some heat around the edges.

Saturday: Still cool in the center and drying out in some places.

Sunday: Still cool but NOT AS cool, in fact, closer to average Midwest by the end of week 2. 6-10 day is on the dry side but then more rains possible again.

Monday: Not as cool, closer to average Midwest? Fairly dry in the 6-10 day.

Tuesday: After turning drier early in the extended, it looks to turn wet. Temps? Not as cool in the middle as last weeks outlooks but there is uncertainty.

Wednesday: Dry start to the 6-10 day, then turning wetter again, especially 8-14 day.  No temp extremes but not as cool in the middle as recent outlooks.

Thursday: Turning wetter again. More warmth than cool, especially south.

Friday: GFS products/tools are cool Midwest to East but there's a case to be made for warmer by the European ensemble. Precip uncertain.........could go either way.

Saturday: Cold start from late week 1, then turning warmer. Heaviest rains Plains/Upper Midwest.

Sunday: Chilly start Great Lakes/Northeast then big warm up. Increasingly wet Upper Midwest/N/C.Plains?

Monday: Warm south, spreading north. Wet northern half, dry southern half.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
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8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability