INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 5, 2019, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, September 5, 2019  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. August Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -7.5%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. August ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +135000; previous +156000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (expected +2.2%; previous +3.4%)

 



 

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.5%; previous -1.6%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 215K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1698000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. August US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 54.0; previous 53.7)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 53.1)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 56.5)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.2)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 54.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2857B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +60B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 427.751M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -10.027M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 231.982M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.09M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.06M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.063M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.2%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.209M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.222M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. August Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 52.5)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. August Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 

               

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading on news that the U.S. and Chinese envoys will meet in early October for more talks aimed at ending a tariff war that threatens global economic growth. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7759.92 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 7353.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7759.92. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8151.75. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 7353.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04.



The September S&P 500 was sharply higher overnight and trading above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2945.96 as it renewed the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2945.96 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2890.30 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2945.96. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2809.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 170-26 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 167-18. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 170-26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-12.



September T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 129.280 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 131.230. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the reaction low crossing at 129.280. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.154. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 52.84 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 50.50. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 60.93. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 52.84. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.50.



October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight and is challenging resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.05. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.05. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 177.70 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 175.15. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.06. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is August's low crossing at 175.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 164.31. 



October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 158.28 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 158.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.57. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 144.75. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 130.42.



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.523 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.228 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.457. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.523. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.278. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.228.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the sell off from Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 99.33. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.48.  



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 109.36. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The September British Pound was sharply higher overnight and testing resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2349.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2349 would confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1877. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2349. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2617. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1965. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1877.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0230 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0024 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.0314. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0384. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0083. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0064. 



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extended the rebound off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 75.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 75.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.90. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.68. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 74.32.



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0936 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0936. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0918.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1523.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1523.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1467.70.



December silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.816 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 18.445. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.816. 



December copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.28 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of September. If December renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.28. Second resistance is the July 30th reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 248.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at 234.12.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. News that U.S./China trade talks will resume in October along with the oversold condition of the market triggered the short covering bounce overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.09. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.56 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.     



December wheat was higher overnight due to short covering.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.97 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.50 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 3.84 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.39 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.  



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.11 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.96 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 8.52 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.



December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight while extends August's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 306.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 306.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 293.70. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance level is August's high crossing at 30.25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 28.22. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.60 at $67.13. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.82. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed down $0.25 at 99.03. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 97.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 105.14. First support is August's low crossing at 97.78. Second support is weekly support crossing at 97.08. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $1.33 at $133.43. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.75 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.75. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.     



December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 22.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.44 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 5, 2019, 12:55 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Maybe the most bullish weather is the hot/dry for TX cotton?

Getting late for grain weather but no freeze but maybe turning colder in 2 weeks.

Heavy rains north, dry far south.

Enough heat the next 10 days to be bullish ng but this may be dialed in with the huge price spike up recently. EIA report this morning was very bearish.