INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 22, 2018, 7:48 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, May 22, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.1%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous -3)

 



 

 

                       Retail Revenues Idx

 



 

 

                       Services Rev Idx

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous -8)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.9M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 376.5)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.7%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 252.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1057.1)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.8%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.4)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 56.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 679K; previous 694K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -2.2%; previous +4.0%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.2)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 432.354M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.404M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.014M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.79M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.946M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.092M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.1%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.527M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.021M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

Thursday, May 24, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1114.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 506.6K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 194.8K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K: previous 222K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1707000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -87K)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. March U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 5.59M; previous 5.60M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.6)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 250400)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1538B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +106B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 33)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 26)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 31)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, May 25, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.5%: previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

 

                        

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 98.8; previous 98.8)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations (previous 88.4)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as U.S. bond yields eased and the dollar pulled back, while investor cheer over easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China continued.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6813.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6813.09. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.    



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight while extending last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2688.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is May's low crossing at 2592.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-30. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 140-05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 140-03.



June T-notes were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.066 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.066. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.304. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 118.105. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 72.72. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.92.  



June heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 230.69. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 225.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.67. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 227.73. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 221.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.38. 



June Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.769 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 2.870. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.769. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.695.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 93.97. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.77.



The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, last-November low crossing at 117.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.19. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117.39. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35. 



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the late-November's low crossing at 1.3323 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3612 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3612. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3927. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3407. Second support is the late-November low crossing at 1.3323.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extend the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0055 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0055. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0324. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. Closes below May's low crossing at 76.99 would renew the decline off April's high while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 76.33.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is May's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.8956 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9130 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9130. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9304. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.8956. Second support is last-November low crossing at 0.8858.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight due to weakness in the US Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.30. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1326.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1263.70.



July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.579 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 16.865. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805. 



June copper was higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 311.95 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 311.95. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is May's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4.  



July wheat was higher overnight erasing some of Monday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is May's low crossing at 4.86 1/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 1/4-cents at 5.26 1/2. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 5.67 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2 would renew this month's decline.First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.12 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.33 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at 5.99 1/2. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 9.88 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.38. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 9.92 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.88 3/4. 



July soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 367.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 386.0 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00. 



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.54 would open the door for additional short-term gains. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. First support is April's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 



Comments
By metmike - May 22, 2018, 8:56 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine