Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:47 a.m.

Happy September 9th! Do something especially nice for somebody.......... Then think about how you made their world better!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.


Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 


 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





US Weather Current Temperatures Map


US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    


Comments
By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:49 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.


Hot in the South.

   

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:50 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Hot!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:52 a.m.
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We have passed the peak in Summer temperatures based on climatological/historical averages by going on 2 months but still have some big heat on the way!!!!!




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:52 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:53 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Heavy rains north. Dry south!


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:55 a.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.

Heavy rains North!

  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

 


 

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 9:56 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:01 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:08 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Dry, low humidity Northeast.

Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:09 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:10 a.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of heat  being a factor in evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during this month.

TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST WEEK in the central Cornbelt. Not unusual for early September.

TX and cotton have the worst drought.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


                                                                                      

                             

Drought Monitor for conus

                                                              

                                        

Drought Monitor for conus

          

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:12 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
 


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 24, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

F

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:13 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    


By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:15 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.



Last Monday: No strong signal or suggestion of anomalous type weather.

Tuesday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA has a wide spread as that indice is very sensitive to the pattern/positions of an upper level trough and ridge in Western North America.

Wednesday: AO drops to near 0. NAO near 0 and PNA drops from positive to near 0 at the end of 2 weeks. Nothing at all suggested out of the ordinary.

Thursday: AO drops from positive to near 0. NAO near 0 and PNA stays bit positive with a wide spread its sensitive to the upper level trough off the NW Coast's position relative to features surrounding it.

Friday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA a bit above 0.

Saturday: AO, NAO and PNA all slightly positive. Late week 2 is uncertain.

Sunday: AO, NAO drop to near 0. PNA slight positive. Nothing to go on.

Monday: Same as Sunday.

Tuesday: Negative AO. Near 0 NAO. Positive PNA.  

Wednesday:  Negative AO, Near 0 PNA, Positive PNA again.

Thursday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA a bit positive.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2019, 10:15 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.



Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability