KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
N/A 4th Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. August NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 103.5; previous 104.7)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.2M)
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 558.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 242.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2367.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.0%)
8:30 AM ET. August PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. July Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.98M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.771M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.586M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.396M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.522M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.538M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.621M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.588M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the July 31st high crossing at 8151.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7674.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 7895.00. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 8151.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7674.90. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at 7353.25.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low but remains above the 50-day moving average. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3029.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2986.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2990.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2913.51. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2809.83. Third support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-03 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 170-26 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 170-26. First support is the reaction low crossing at 162-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-03.
December T-notes were lower overnight as they extend last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 130.160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 132.130. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the reaction low crossing at 130.160. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.202.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends Monday's rally, the late-July high crossing at 58.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 52.84 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 50.50. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 60.93. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 52.84. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.50.
October heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the late-July's high crossing at 198.13 the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 194.24. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177.70. Second support is August's low crossing at 175.15.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 160.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 150.93 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 160.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 144.75. Second support isthe January-2019 low crossing at 130.42.
October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.636 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.292 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.636. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.394. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.292.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 98.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.18.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.60. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 110.12. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound was steady overnight as it remains above resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2368.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2368 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1965 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2368. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2652. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2008. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1965.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0279 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.0391. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.0456. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0156. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0114.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the July 31st high crossing at 76.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 76.20. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 76.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0947 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0965. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0967. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0936. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1472.20 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1472.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 1406.40.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.940 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.940. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.879.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 263.69 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of September. If December renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 263.69. Second resistance is the July 30th reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 248.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at 234.12.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.03 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.52 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.93. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.50 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 3/4-cents at 3.98.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.00 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.00 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.27. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.51. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.88 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance level is August's high crossing at 30.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 28.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.80 at $63.50.
October hogs gapped down and closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.17 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renewed today's decline, August's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. If October extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.63. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed down $3.00 at 94.87.
October cattle closed limit down on Friday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 83.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 104.77. First support is today's low crossing at 94.87. Second support is weekly support crossing at 83.42.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.42 at $130.90.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to lower signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.64 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.64. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 22.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target.
October sugar posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.40 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 60.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Hot weather is still the feature. Bullish for natural gas but the rally has come a very long way and hitting major resistance at the 200 day moving average...........and it September.
-3% for corn ratings was Bullish. They're having trouble finishing the Spring wheat harvest in the Upper Midwest/N.Plains because its been much too wet.
USDA report on Thursday.