KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 12, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 217K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1662000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -39K)
8:30 AM ET. August CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. August Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 251K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 857.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 312.1K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2941B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +84B)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
12:30 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
2:00 PM ET. August Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 13, 2019
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +1.0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.4%; previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +1.9%)
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.3%; previous +0.0%)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 91.0; previous 92.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 82.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 107.4)
Monday, September 16, 2019
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 4.8)
Employment Idx (previous -1.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 6.7)
Prices Received (previous 4.5)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 8175.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7721.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7981.25. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8175.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7721.54. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at 7353.25.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3029.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2925.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3017.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2961.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2925.73.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-01. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is the overnight low crossing at 160-02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-09.
December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight after testing support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.218. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.218 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 128.229. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.185 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.185. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.165. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 128.229.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 54.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 60.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 60.93. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 54.83. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 52.84.
October heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the late-July's high crossing at 198.13 the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 196.24. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 198.13. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 177.70. Second support is August's low crossing at 175.15.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 150.93 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 160.37 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 162.08. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 171.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.65. Second support is September's low crossing at 144.75.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.327 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.636. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.454. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.327.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 98.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.27.
The December Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.47. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 110.12. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2355. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.2434 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1965 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2434. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2652. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2008. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1965.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0258 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0298. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.0391. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0141. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0114.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the July 31st high crossing at 76.40 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 76.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.51. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0945 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0945. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.0965. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0930. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1475.80 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1475.80. Second support is August's low crossing at 1406.40.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.047 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.995.
December copper was higher overnight and is resuming the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 263.54 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off last-Tuesday's low. If December renews the decline off July's high, monthly support crossing at 234.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 263.54. Second resistance is the July 30th reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 248.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at 234.12.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher due to short covering overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.52 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
December wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.83 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.50 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.42 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/4-cents at 3.98 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.09 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.25. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.84. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.51. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 304.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 27.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 29.14. Second resistance level is August's high crossing at 30.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 28.20. Second support is August's low crossing at 27.88.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.55 at $60.18.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, August's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.03. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $2.35 at 98.50.
October cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 83.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.63. Second resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 103.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 93.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 83.42.
October Feeder cattle closed up $2.98 at $134.03.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to higher signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.32 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.32. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is August's low crossing at 127.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.28. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 8.76 is the next downside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.54 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, last-October's low crossing at 20.83 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.27 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 60.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine.
USDA will surprise us and determine what the market does today.
Watching for much cooler weather in week 2 and potential freeze.