INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 21, 2017, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, December 21, 2017   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Food/Energy, Q/Q%

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 225K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1886000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -27K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 866.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1565.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 598.3K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.65)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.28)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (expected 20.0; previous 22.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 39.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment (previous 22.6)

 



 

 

                       New Orders (previous 21.4)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 8.6)

 



 

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 14.6)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous -8.6)

 



 

 

                       Shipments (previous 21.7)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. October U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (expected +0.4%; previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3626B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -69B)

 

                        

 

2:00 AM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

Friday, December 22, 2017  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.0%; previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.0; previous 98.5)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.9)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 650K; previous 685K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.1%; previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.9)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. Dec. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 40)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 16)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 27)

 



 

 

Monday, December 25, 2017   

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S.: Christmas Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

  N/A               Marianas: Christmas Day

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. However, stocks are set for another subdued day of trade as futures are struggling for direction while traders look for fresh news after the tax bill was approved to extend this year's rally. Several economic indicators ahead, including weekly jobless claims and a revision to growth domestic product, could provide some inspiration for investors later. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that the index is vulnerable for correction as it consolidates some of this year's huge gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6405.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If the NASDAQ 100 index continues to trade in record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6405.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6304.74.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and remains poised to extends this year's rally into record territory. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2651.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2697.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2651.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2605.11.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 149-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.  



March T-notes were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.093 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 124.210. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 125.000. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 123.135. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JanuaryNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last Thursday's low, November's high crossing at 59.05. If January renews the decline off November's high, the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 59.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 55.11. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November crossing at 53.04.



January heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 184.00 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 216.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.02. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 184.00.      



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 175.89 is the next upside target. If January resumes the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 175.89. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 181.51. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49. Second support is October's low crossing at 152.48. 



January Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.847 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.778. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.847. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.581. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week's high, the reaction low crossing at 92.69 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 94.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.22. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.26.



The March Euro was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 120.43 or below November's low crossing at 116.49 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.49. 



The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3328 are the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3328. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.  



The March Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1.0352 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0328. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0062.    



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at 79.31 or below October's low crossing at 77.55 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is December's high crossing at 79.31. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the late-November's low crossing at 77.58. Second support is October's low crossing at 77.55.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.8934 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1268.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1268.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1279.20. First support is December's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.  



March silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.256 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.256. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.784. First support is December's low crossing at 15.635. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626.     



March copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 327.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 321.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.95. First support is December's low crossing at 294.30. Second support is October's low crossing at 291.35. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March Corn was down a 1/4-cent at 3.49. 



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.57 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.65 1/4. First support is this week's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.  



March wheat was down a 1/2-cents at $4.23. 



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.



March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 4.22 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.36 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.36 1/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.  



March Minneapolis wheat was down a 1/2-cent overnight at 6.23. 



March Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 6.66. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were down 2-cents at 9.52. 



January soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off December's high, September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.51 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2. 



January soybean meal was unchanged at 315.70. 



January soybean meal was unchanged overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 311.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 321.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.10. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 314.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60. 



January soybean oil was down 23 pts. at 32.73. 



January soybean oil was lower overnight and has renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.45 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.45. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 35.61. First support is the overnight low crossing at 32.66. Second support is October's low crossing at 32.47. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.48 at $68.38. 



February hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43.



February cattle closed down $1.50 at 118.95. 



February cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.

 

January Feeder cattle closed down $3.43 at $141.78. 



January Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.57. First support is today's low crossing at 140.97. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, April's low crossing at 18.27 is the next downside target. 



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.54 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.46 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.83 is the next upside target. 

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