crop moisture
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Started by metmike - May 24, 2018, 9:53 a.m.

Crop moisture index in good shape but top soils are getting dry in several locations.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

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By metmike - May 24, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal. 


Note all the dry pockets for % normal over the past 14 days, especially in IL/IN and now w.IA and e.NE. Rain makes grain now and lack of rain will be bullish, more rain bearish in the forecasts. 

By Jim_M - May 24, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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Not a good thing to see so much heat and questionable rain in June.  

By mcfarm - May 24, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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most of our crop emerged but plenty around that were planted about a week later and they are still in trouble. Only 3 tenths in May and next week we get into the 90's



metmike could you update us on the 6 to 10 day....may have to take some protection on Friday in front of the long weekend....if we come in Tuesday with suddenly rain would hurt the markets


sorry just noticed your update below...not good news for us it looks like

By metmike - May 24, 2018, 2:32 p.m.
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mcfarm,

I think the legit threat of a heat ridge that shuts down the rain took us higher this week.........though corn struggled because:

1. There was still rain in the forecast

2. Reversal of corn/beans spreads

3. Last of the crop getting planted fast

4. Seasonals turn sharply lower here without a dome

5. Strong dollar


Beans have especially been strong because of the China news. The same heat ridge that helped corn to make new highs for the move was embraced as powerful ammo for the beans. 

Reversal lower today is not good. Like you said, if we have alot of rain in the forecast when we come in next week..........the highs will be in short term.

If the rains come and are widespread, the highs will be in for at least a  couple of weeks, possibly for the Summer if no dome of death shows up.

By metmike - May 24, 2018, 2:59 p.m.
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This is the rain event(s) next week that the market is focusing on right now:

First map is Days 4-5 

2nd map is Days 6-7

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1527188153

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1527188153



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1527188153

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1527188153