new home sales - wow
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Started by bear - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:47 a.m.

the y-o-y figure is up 18% from 2018 .  that is a big boost.   of course new home sales are only  11% of the total of all home sales.  but still, that is a very positive number.  

if we see more positive surprises like that the fed will not even think about lower rates further. 

the flat curve suggests that we are Not going to see lots of great figures like this. 

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By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 12:30 p.m.
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Thanks much bear!


US New Home Sales Climbed a Healthy 7.1% in August

US new home sales climbed a healthy 7.1% in August, helped by low borrowing costs.

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-09-25/us-new-home-sales-climbed-a-healthy-71-in-august

By TimNew - Sept. 25, 2019, 12:56 p.m.
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Both Housing and MFG started the year out relatively weak but indications showing strength as we approach Q4.  Definitely data that will give the Fed pause in easing.

By bear - Sept. 25, 2019, 5:15 p.m.
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remember, the headline figure for housing is usually a month over month figure (ei- the + 7%).

half way down the article i read, they give the y-o-y number.  we will see eventually if that was just a blip/abhoration.

the bond market is telling me we will not have much growth over the next 10-15 years.   (the yield curve trend has not reversed to go wider,... not yet).  

By cutworm - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:14 p.m.
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Jobs are a big driver in the new housing market. 

By TimNew - Sept. 26, 2019, 3:39 a.m.
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Jobs drive  just about every market and most of the YTD growth has been consumer spending.  Business investment has been a little sluggish,  but we may see a change in Q4.

Fact remains, it's getting harder and harder to find unemployed people and voluntary quits remain at a much higher rate than we've seen for most of the previous decade.

By bear - Oct. 1, 2019, 1:08 p.m.
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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/09/26/miami-real-estate-is-about-to-collapse-this-is-about-condos-and-it-would-be-funny-if-it-werent-so-serious/


its funny how some reports of the real estate market can seem so good,  then others look horrible.  


at least for now, here outside tucson, it seems to be going along ok.  not great, not horrible, but ok and positive for now.  

By TimNew - Oct. 1, 2019, 1:27 p.m.
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But this is an opinion piece on the Miami condo market.

By bear - Oct. 1, 2019, 9:18 p.m.
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yes, the high end condo market is very different that the average family that is buying a home to live in.  

but... the question is... can one do really well, while the other crashes?  

By cutworm - Oct. 2, 2019, 3:46 a.m.
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I have been saying that the new housing market is in good shape. Now with 7% increase in Aug. if the increase is only 4% in Sept. will they say that housing is in a down trend. IMHO short trend housing numbers should be taken with an understanding of what they are and how they are gathered.


By patrick - Oct. 2, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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Bill McBride, as usual, puts some order into the numbers. It was a very good summer for new home sales.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/a-few-comments-on-august-new-home-sales.html