INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 25, 2018, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 25, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.5%: previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.7%)

 

                        

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 98.8; previous 98.8)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations (previous 88.4)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6856.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6856.71. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.    



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2674.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2674.59. Second support is May's low crossing at 2592.50.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 141-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-27. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. First support is May's low crossing at 140-05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 140-03.



June T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.287 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.287. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 119.315. First support is May's low crossing at 118.105. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 72.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.19. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.32.  



July heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 221.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 229.87. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 221.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 210.58. 



July unleaded gas was sharply lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 228.04. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 208.94. 



July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 3.010 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.844 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.987. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.010. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.898. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.843.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 94.12. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.12.



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.25. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 116.95. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66.



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, November's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3531 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3531. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3638. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3319. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.3148.  



The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.0169 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0169. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0291. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at 76.99 would renew the decline off April's high while opening the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 76.33.If June resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is May's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If June extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9285 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.8956 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9285. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9229. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.8956. Second support is last-November low crossing at 0.8858.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1304.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1304.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1326.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1263.70.



July silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 16.865 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.497 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 16.865. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805. 



June copper was higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 313.65 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 313.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is May's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.01 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2.  



July wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.95.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.49. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 5.57 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, last-November's high crossing at 6.69 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.13 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6.51. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 6.69 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.13 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.99 1/2.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the rally off May's low, the late-April high crossing at 10.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.19 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the late-April high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 10.07 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 9.92 1/2. 



July soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 384.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 367.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00. 



July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 32.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.00. First support is May's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.23 at $74.83. 



June hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off the late-April low, April's high crossing at 79.10 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 70.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 77.48. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.10. First support is the late-April low crossing at 72.20. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25. 



June cattle closed down $1.05 at 104.40. 



June cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 108.10 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 97.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 108.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $143.30. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 143.11 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 147.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 149.08. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is May's low crossing at 136.25. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 12.60 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 11.53 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 24.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.41 would confirm that a low has been posted.  



July sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.66 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. 



July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 95.10 is the next upside target.   

Comments
By metmike - May 25, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!