South America planting schedule/conditions
6 responses | 1 like
Started by metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:31 p.m.

We're getting to the time of year when the weather in the Southern Hemisphere is becoming very important to several markets, especially corn and beans.

Here is some information that is useful in tracking these markets from the growing season perspective over the next 6 months.


Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles


Argentina Month-By-Month Crop Cycles

Below is a breakdown of the month-by-month crop production cycles in Argentina(just the next 2 months below). Go to the link for the rest.


 

September

  • Early corn being planted in northern Argentina, corn planting progresses southward.
  • Sunflower planting begins.
  • Wheat is in vegetative to heading phase.
  • Temperatures in northern Argentina can be quite warm.
  • Temperatures in central Argentina warming up to 70's-80 but cool spells still possible.
  • Rainfall in the form of spring showers.

October

  • This is the main corn planting month, especially in central Argentina.
  • Finish sunflower planting.
  • Begin early soybean planting in central Argentina.
  • Wheat is moving from heading to grain filling phase.
  • Temperatures warming up to the 80's or hotter.
  • Rainfall can be variable.

November

  • Corn planting finishes in central Argentina.
  • Corn pollination starts in northern Argentina.
  • Soybean planting at full steam.
  • Wheat moving from grain filling to maturity.
  • Sunflowers are flowering.
  • Temperatures now at summertime levels, can have heat waves as well.
  • Summertime rains usually become more abundant.
  • Global Crop Production Maps by Region


    https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/global_cropprod.aspx
    https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/ssa/AR_Delegation/Argentina_soybeans_department_2014_2017.jpg                                    
Comments
By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Crop Calendar for Brazil:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

September

 

  • Winter wheat is approaching maturity in southern Brazil.
  • Corn planting begins in southern Brazil. 
  • Early soybean and corn planting begins in Mato Grosso and central Brazil.
  • Rains usually begin about this time in central Brazil, temperatures are very hot.
  • Scattered showers start to occur in southern Brazil, temperatures can be hot.

October

  •  
  • Wheat harvest and corn planting underway in southern Brazil.
  • Soybean planting in full swing in southern Brazil, continue corn and soybean planting in central Brazil.
  • Rainfall frequency picks up in Brazil, rains 1-2 times a week, distribution may be uneven.
  • Temperatures remain very hot in central Brazil, warming up in southern Brazil. 

November

  •  
  • Early November is main soybean planting period in Brazil, full season corn crop should be all planted by now.
  • Earliest planted soybeans may start flowering by end of the month. 
  • Early planted corn begins pollination.
  • Rainfall now more frequent, 3-4 times a week, temperatures remain very hot in central Brazil.
  • http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

    https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

                                        
By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:41 p.m.
Like Reply

It's been pretty dry in much of South America this year. The maps below are for 30 days, 90 days and 180 days % of average precipitation:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:45 p.m.
Like Reply

The forecasts below come from the GFS/US model which is MUCH drier than the European model. It's likely that part of the pressure on bean prices on Wednesday was from the increasing rains for very dry Central Brazil on the European model.

It's VERY early in the planting season however.

http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php


                                                

    

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 8:47 p.m.
Like Reply

European model:

   

                        

         

          

         

                       

         

By tjc - Sept. 26, 2019, 9:17 a.m.
Like Reply

  MetMike

 Thank you for this enlightening thread.  Most of us know this is in 'your' library regarding SA crop production, but always a must for re-education.

  CBT generally kills the SA crop 2-3 times, as it does the USA, so perhaps this potentially 'dry' SA forecast is just one such event.

  Keep us posted, Mr. Weatherman!

By metmike - Oct. 7, 2019, 7:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tjc!

It's still early to be trading weather in South America right now but there is a large area that has been very dry compared to average for several months, so maybe the market will start paying attention to weather down there earlier than normal. In the Southern Hemisphere, the time of year is similar to our April time frame. 


Latest 2 week forecast from the US operational model.


http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec8.png