INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 27, 2019, 4:02 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 

Monday, September 30, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position



9:45 AM ET. September ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (previous 50.4)



10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 2.7)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 17.9)



  N/A              U.S. fiscal year ends



  N/A              Deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown



  N/A              Chinese Vice Premier Liu He makes latest visit to Washington,

                        DC, this week for talks on trade



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday and posted a second weekly loss, after a news report said the Trump administration is considering potential restrictions on U.S. portfolio investments into China. Investors also are watching economic data and developments around a whistle blower complaint against President Donald Trump, who is facing an impeachment inquiry in the House. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off the August 26th low, July's high crossing at 8071.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8071.75. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.  



The December S&P 500 closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 2895.00 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3027.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3025.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3027.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2950.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 2895.00.  



The Dow closed lower on Fridayas it extends this week's trading range. Today's sell of in the Dow was led by losses for Microsoft, Visa shares. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,577.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 27,398.68. First resistance is September's high crossing at 27,306.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 27,398.68. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,588.65. Second support is September's low crossing at 26,978.22.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 162-04.



December T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the September 13th reaction low, August's high crossing at 166-25. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 155-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 163-10. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 160-16. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 155-27.         



December T-notes closed up 5-pts. At 130.080.



December T-notes closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the September 13th reaction low, September's high crossing at 132.130 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 130.245. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September''s high, the September 12th reaction low crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 57.98 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the rally off August's low, April's high crossing at 65.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 57.98. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 63.89. First support the September 12th reaction low crossing at 53.93. Second support is September's low crossing at 52.71.   



November heating oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes  the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 215.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. Second resistance is the May's high crossing at 215.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.48.  



November unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September, May's high crossing at 177.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 177.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156.03. 



November Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday confirming Thursday's key reversal down while extending the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.381 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.568 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.568. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 2.745. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.381. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.218.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.14.Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.68.



The December Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 111.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.81. First support is today's low crossing at 109.66. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.



The December British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2330 confirms that a short-term top has been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 1.2008 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2468 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2592. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2306. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.    



The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0059 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0254 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0254. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0298. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0090. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0059.



The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 75.22. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84. 



The December Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing 0.0927. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1500.70 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1500.70. Second support is August's low crossing at 1406.40.



December silver closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.537 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.258 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.537. Second support is the August 13th reaction low crossing at 16.560.           



December copper closed higher on Friday as it extends September's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 273.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is today's low crossing at 257.05. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.   



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 3.72. 



December corn posted an inside day with a fractionally lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the August 29th reaction high crossing at 3.77 would signal that the short-term trend has turned neutral to bullish and would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.85 3/4. First resistance is the August 29th reaction high crossing at 3.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.85 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.   



December wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 4.87. 



December wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.92 1/2 would renew the rally off September's low while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4 in the near-future. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.77 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.92 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.77 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 4.07 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.15 3/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.15 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.01 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.47. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 5.59. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-Sept. decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 5 1/2-cents at 8.83.



November soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 9.24 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.81. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.51.    



December soybean meal closed down $0.50 at 295.10. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 300.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 300.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil closed down 40-pts. at 28.77. 



December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off September's high. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.98 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 28.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.52. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is today's low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $1.05 at $65.28. 



October hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.63 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.63. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $2.08 at 105.03. 



October cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.37 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 105.25. Second resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.37.  

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $1.23 at $144.33. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 144.73. Second resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 140.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.60.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Friday leaving Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 94.20 is the next downside target.      



December cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 25.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



October sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.12 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If October extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 11.96 is the next upside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Friday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.14 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 30, 2019, 1:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Weather is turning bullish for coffee.

Becoming more bearish natural, though this time of year, the weather is not a big factor usually. Supplies for ng are massive.

Grain weather is nuetral.  Heavy rains this week are temporary, then it dries out. Freeze in the north is too late to do much damage. Harvest pressure and seasonals are negative corn and beans. Yields could get worse with time in October from the later planted crops and double crop beans will be poor.