KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 512.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -10.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 261.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1982.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -15.2%)
8:15 AM ET. September ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +138000; previous +195000)
9:45 AM ET. September ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 50.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 419.538M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.412M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.204M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.519M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.685M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.978M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.181M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.919M)
Thursday, October 3, 2019
7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +37.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 213K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 494.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1038.0K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 283.2K)
9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.7)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.2; previous 56.4)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.5)
Prices Idx (previous 58.2)
Employment Idx (previous 53.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +1.4%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3205B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)
11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.8)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, October 4, 2019
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -53.99B)
Exports (USD) (previous 207.4B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Imports (USD) (previous 261.39B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +140K; previous +130K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.39%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +34K)
Private Payroll (previous +96K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower in overnight trading following Tuesday's report by the Institute for Supply Management that indicated a downturn in its closely watched U.S. manufacturing index to the worst level in more than a decade. Wall Street will also be watching the (ADP) Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s private-sector employment report for signs of weakness in the U.S. economy. The ADP payrolls report comes ahead of the more closely followed non-farm payroll report due on Friday, but will be closely watched following Tuesday’s bearish manufacturing report.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7837.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7837.21. Second resistance is September 12th high crossing at 8002.50. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.
The December S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as it extends its decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 2895.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2985.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2947.91. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2992.00. First support is September's low crossing at 2895.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 2841.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 166-25 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 163-11. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27.
December T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 132.130 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 130.295. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 52.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.81. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 63.89. First support is September's low crossing at 52.71. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.48.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.85. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.33. Second support is the September 12th low crossing at 185.15. Third support is September's low crossing at 178.06.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 161.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 168.24. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.80. Second support is the September 12th low crossing at 149.84.
November Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the September 17th high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.537 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.450. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.537. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.266. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 99.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.81.
The December Euro was slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 109.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2008 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2423 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2423. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2595. Third resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2241. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0154 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0241. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0046. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 75.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target.First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 76.40. First support is the September 18th reaction low crossing at 75.22. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight following Tuesday's key reversal up. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0927. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1507.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.963 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 251.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off September's low. First resistance is August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 5.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 4.11 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it extends the August-October trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 4.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.03 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.03 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.80 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.20. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.95 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 313.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 308.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 313.80. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 28.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.19. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.90 at $62.55.
October hogs closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.03 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.03. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $0.05 at 104.63.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low that marked an upside breakout of this year's downtrend line. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.92 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 105.25. Second resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 102.37. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.92.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.43 at $140.98.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off September's low, the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 144.73. Second resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is today's low crossing at 140.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.24.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 94.20 is the next downside target.
December cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 25.49 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the July 30th reaction high crossing at 13.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 59.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
Thanks tallpine!
Heavy rains in the Midsection about to end. Drying out next week with harvest pressure accelerating.
Coffee rains not looking very robust except for far southeast areas of Minas Gerais.