Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:15 p.m.

Hello October 2nd!  Do something......(even if it's just saying hello to a stranger) to make somebody feel especially lucky today......... Then think about how you made their world better!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm).

Heavy rains finally coming to an end for parts of the Central US!!

Record heat southeast, chilly air northwest  right now  but the pattern is breaking down and turns to a more zonal flow and  less extremes.

Coffee-watching to see if the October, start to the rainy season gets going or sputters....looks like it will be sputtering at the moment. There is one rain event in the next 2 weeks.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

Mid Summer,  record Heat is north of the Ohio River! Cooling on they way.



By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Cooler air moving from northwest to southeast. Temperatures closer to average.



By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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The anomalous pattern/extremes  breaks down in a big way. Close to average temps. Still some heat left in the Southeast.


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:21 p.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Reinforcing cold front MUCH drier in the wet areas.


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:22 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Midsection drying out next week.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:



By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:23 p.m.
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of heat  being a factor in evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during this month.

TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT INCREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST WEEK(AGAIN) in the Southeast and South because of intense heat and no rain!!!! This includes the Eastern Cornbelt.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.


Drought Monitor for conus



Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:28 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 17, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)




0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 12:30 p.m.
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By wglassfo - Sept. 22, 2019, 7:24 p.m.            


In our area of the Great Lakes we have had excessive heat 90 degrees plus for many days with no rain

The heat is pushing the late planted to maturity, but also not allowing for kernel development

Our area has been lower yield in all crops harvested thus far. Our local co-op does an annual yield check for corn and bean yield

Our area is expected to yield 167 bu.acre   "ouch" with a county average of 171. Some will yield 200 but that ground usually yields 200 plus  "ouch" I have noticed the later planted corn has the samee kernel count but not the ccob wt as earlier planted. Given much of Ont corn was planted in June, my observation is most June planted corn has very small cobs

Beans 40 bu/acre

 I don't see even 40 bu average as many fields look to me in the 20-25 bu. I think 40 is overly optimistic [for our county] with short beans and low pod counts. Any beans planted in June will be 25 or less in all of Ont IMHO with some places better but the average will be much below average

This will be a yr of disappointment in Ont as the harvest tells the story. Our cash price is already elevated and should go higher as I think much of Mich will also be below average

Beyond Mich the transportation cost for corn, just adds to our cash price

We have one customer that bought several 1000 bu from us, this yr. as he will not have enough corn to feed his hogs in 2020. He is paying to truck our corn a considerable distance and we do our own trucking. We can only do two loads a day due to distance travelled, vs four locally per truck.

I expect to see more competition for available corn in 2020 in our area. Unfortunately I did not plant 1/2 of a farm [ tiled it instead] so my bu will be less and with lower yield much less available, once the harvest dust settles and I know my total bu.

Going to be a skinny yr on this farm for 2020, but we will pay the bills. This yr, that may be as much as most can hope for.



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - Sept. 23, 2019, noon            


Thanks Wayne!





                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            

                            By bowyer - Sept. 29, 2019, 1:33 p.m.            


Where was all this rain last July ???? A pattern sets up and stays too long. WET spring. Basically no rain in July, and now heavy rains every few days. Harvest a month behind, and big snows in Montana to give us the next thing to worry about.



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            

                            By metmike - Sept. 29, 2019, 5:31 p.m.            


Thanks Bowyer,

In the SW corner of IN, we are going to end up with our 2nd driest September and 3rd driest month in recorded history.

The late planted and double crop beans got hurt since temps were MUCH above average too and there were still a few more weeks left to completely fill on  the very end, they just shut down early. 



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By hayman - Sept. 29, 2019, 6 p.m.            


Amazing how both 'the driest ever' and 'too dang much rain' can coexist on the same continent not that far from each other!  



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            

                           By metmike - Sept. 29, 2019, 6:09 p.m.            


Yes, and thats what often happens.

A very warm pattern in one region from is being amplified, usually means the equal and opposite pattern upstream or downstream. 

An anomalous   upper level heat ridge/dome in the Southeast US causing hot/dry, in combination with the opposite pattern along the West Coast......... anomalous Upper level low with cold, is favorable for heavy rains in between.

Deamplified zonal, west to east flow is benign. 

Look at this pattern!!!

Current Jet Stream




                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            

                By metmike - Sept. 29, 2019, 6:17 p.m.            


Snow that initially fell in the mountains early in the weekend will spread to the lower elevations of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains into Monday.

Rockies snow Oct 7


Gillette, Casper and Cheyenne, Wyoming; Rapid City, South Dakota; and Dickinson and Williston, North Dakota; are among the cities expected to receive some snow into midweek.



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By tjc - Sept. 30, 2019, 12:29 p.m.            


  Huge rains along entire length of I80 through LaSalle County, Illinois.  Tenant says he has a 5.5 rain gauge and when he checked in Saturday morning it was to the top. Most say slightly over 6 inches.  More supposedly on the way Wednesday.  Wont help crop, but sure will make for high moisture crops and rutted fields.  (Probably same ruts as when it was planted!!)



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - Sept. 30, 2019, 1:49 p.m.            

            Thanks tjc!!

We are burning up down here in SW Indiana. 

If this were August, the market would have been soaring this month................actually it is today but mostly from the very bullish USDA report.