INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 2, 2019, 4:36 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, October 3, 2019 



7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +37.7%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 213K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1650000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 494.0K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1038.0K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 283.2K)



9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 50.7)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. September ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.2; previous 56.4)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.5)



                       Prices Idx (previous 58.2)



                       Employment Idx (previous 53.1)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 60.3)



10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +1.4%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.1%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.0%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3205B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 51.8)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, October 4, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -53.99B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 207.4B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.39B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +140K; previous +130K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.11)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.39%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.2%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +34K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +96K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. Triggering this week's sharp sell off comes a day after the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey posted its worst reading since 2009. In addition to the aforementioned bearish report was a private-sector employment report from Automatic Data Processing, which showed that only 135,000 jobs were created in September signaling that hiring is slowing along with the broader U.S. economy. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7833.09 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7833.09. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.  



The December S&P 500 gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday's huge key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 2841.00 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at 2937.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2992.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3025.30. First support is today's low crossing at 2876.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 2841.00.  



The Dow gapped down and closed sharply lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. Increasing concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing down along concerns over impeachment talk in Washington over President Trump have triggered investors to some of their risk and market exposure.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 25,339.60 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at 26,562.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is today's gap crossing at 26,562.22. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 27,046.21. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 27,306.73. First support is today's low crossing at 25,974.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 25,339.69.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed up 22/32's at 163-12.



December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday confirming yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the September 13th reaction low, August's high crossing at 166-25. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 163-20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 160-16. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 155-27.         



December T-notes closed up 160-pts. At 131.050.



December T-notes closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the September 13th reaction low, September's high crossing at 132.130 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 129.200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171. First resistance is today's high crossing at 131.080. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September''s high, August's low crossing at 50.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.75. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 63.89. First support  is today's low crossing at 52.17. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.48.   



November heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.28 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.59. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. Third resistance is the May's high crossing at 215.12. First support is September 12th low crossing at 185.15. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.  



November unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.73 opens the door for a possible test of the September 12th low crossing at 149.84. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 160.97 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 163.35. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. First support is the September 12th reaction low crossing at 149.84. Second support is September's low crossing at 143.10.



November Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.535 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.446. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.535. First support is today's low crossing at 2.245. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 99.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.81.



The December Euro closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If December resumes the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.61. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 109.38. Second support ismonthly support crossing at 109.21.



The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 1.2008 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2425 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2592. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2241. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.    



The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0230 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0155. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0241. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0034. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off September's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes today's high crossing at 75.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37. First support is today's low crossing at 75.15. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84. 



The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is Tuesday's low crossing 0.0926. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1508.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1426.60.



December silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.977 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.940. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547.



December copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 261.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 251.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.   



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 5-cents at 3.87 1/2. 



December corn posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates below the August 12th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.   



December wheat closed down 10 1/2-cents at 4.88 1/4. 



December wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.82 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the high of September's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.82 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.05 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the August-October trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.04 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high  crossing at 4.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.04 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 5.29 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.59. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-Sept. decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 6 1/2-cents at 9.13.



November soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 9.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.80 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.80 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.51.    



December soybean meal closed down $3.70 at 305.30. 



December soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 316.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 309.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 316.80. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil closed up 29-pts. at 29.17. 



December soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 28.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 29.31 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 29.31. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $0.35 at $62.20. 



October hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.64. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $1.43 at 106.05. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally above this year's downtrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.27 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 110.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 102.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.27.  

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $142.08. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off September's low, the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 144.73. Second resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is today's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.67.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 94.20 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target.       



December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 25.49 is the next upside target.  



March sugar closed steady on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the July 30th reaction high crossing at 13.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   



December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 59.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. 

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 5:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Heavy rains ending, drying out in the Midwest......harvest pressure accelerates for corn and beans.

For Minas Gerais coffee, weak to moderate system in a week, then hot and dry..........would turn bullish if that defines late October pattern.