With a month to go the 2019 fiscal year
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Started by gfn - Oct. 2, 2019, 10:22 p.m.

Trumps budget hits a trillion dollar deficit  as GDP looks to be tumbling towards  1% . Manufacturing  ISM took another hit   associates I have on the tract housing development markets around th midwest have seen a dramatic slow down .  Auto sales are slowing and lots of them sitting on sales floors and sales lots. 

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2019, 10:37 p.m.
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We can always count on you to provide only bad news and never with any sources or links gfn!

By gfn - Oct. 2, 2019, 10:51 p.m.
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I suppose I should figure out how to post link so I could ne like so many on here that post opinion pieces as facts  in hope of getting people to buy into their line of thought. 

The deficit info comes from OMB 'The GDP  is  based on the current direction it is trending.  ISM was released this Morning but then last time I posted it Your buddies all said how meaningless it was.  Housing and car info is based on personal knowledge and observations.  But feel free to bash away 

By wglassfo - Oct. 3, 2019, 12:57 a.m.
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I can't do a specific link as this is just general reading

I can say the auto industry is offering big discounts as I have been surfing the net looking at prices

If I was in the market this might be a good time to buy assuming a person really needs a vechicle   I don't

I have been picking up some rumblings about the housing market, as it seems from what I read, Miami housing sales is about nothing or at least condos,.Although new development keeps happening, realtors wonder where the buyers went, as the high net worth folks have taken a powder. The general feeling is over time this will spread to the rest of the country as the developers can't hold the paper and make payments on short term paper with no buyers. So will it spread??? nobody knows, but short term paper for a developer needs buyers, and not in 6-9 months

I have nothing on the rest of your post and no links

By wglassfo - Oct. 3, 2019, 1:34 a.m.
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I did a rough back of a napkin math thing on cost of a new 6-8 house duplex. If my numbers are correct, renting a new duplex does not cash flow even amortized over 30 yrs. given what the market will bear. We will need to find something when we leave the farm, which I hope will be several yrs but if both partners lose a drivers lic then the country is no place to live. Yes I could afford to build but what about value when we pass along, and I certainly won't sell a farm out from under the family, so cash accumulated would be the budget which as I said I could do.. This is all new to me and not my bailiwick, so mistakes could happen.

A duplex that I am thinking about with 1200 sq ft still cost over 400,000.00 to build with the cost of a serviced lot included which would be a dang cheap house so far as material is concerned. So where would I find buyers for the rest of the duplex. We are talking close to 4 million for a dang cheap housing duplex, using chip board and all that good stuff. Heck the buyer would need to leave his level and lazer beam at home because there won't be one straight wall in the entire place. So that bothers me when I don't really understand the market. We could have a housing bust and then what???? Make payments on 4 million??? while I wait for value to return???

I asked around about cost to build and that looks a tad expensive, for a cheaply built house. Now you would think renting an apartment would work, but anything available is a tumble down shack. So that is why I got the idea of building and then renting as I am part of the baby boomer generation, and one would think growth should happen in smaller living units, as nobody has the energy to keep a large living space  cleaned etc. for only two or eventually one person, to do the work And forget outside work. That is just too much for an elderly person. Heck I would trip and fall down in the grass if I did not keep it cut. So hiring outside and inside help. who just make a show of cleaning and leave dust around when they should at least see it. Trust me we have had more of that kind then the good ones. Then a taxi to get groceries and things add up

Well, nobody wants to pay the price needed, so what will happen I have no idea. Not everybody has a living budget of 125k to live on.

I don't want a 50 yr old house in a small town either. It would be considerably cheaper, but we won't always be able to cut grass or shovel snow and don't even get me started on up keep or repairs. The general handy man just doesn't exist in our part of the world and I can't do it unless it is a piece of steel and a welder which doesn't go well with most houses.

By cutworm - Oct. 3, 2019, 3:30 a.m.
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US New Home Sales Climbed a Healthy 7.1% in August

US new home sales climbed a healthy 7.1% in August, helped by low borrowing costs.


Posted earlier by metmike

Kinda flies in the face of "associates I have on the tract housing development markets around th midwest have seen a dramatic slow down"

I have been in the house building business for over 2 decades. We are busy with a sales back log, builders are not building market homes. That is a good sign, as that is what builders do at the top of the market cycle.

By cutworm - Oct. 3, 2019, 3:42 a.m.
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If we are going to be "Carbon neutral" by 2050 don't we need the get rid of all those nasty carbon producing cars? 

By TimNew - Oct. 3, 2019, 3:53 a.m.
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It's amazing how many mistakes a person can make in one post. A short post at that.

I never said the ISM is "insignificant". I said it was more reliable than the PMI which,  #1,  you used in your first doomsday MFG post, and #2, was actually positive this week.  Also,  both are surveys and not actual measurements.

Further, the ISM report was released Tuesday morning, not Wednesday as you claimed.

Also,  I rarely, if ever post "opinion pieces" on Eco-Measures. I rely on actual reported data.

Finally, the lowest estimate for Q3:19 GDP is 1.8, down from 2.1  following the ISM report. I suppose you could stretch and say that's "Trending Towards 1".... Let's see how factory orders and the ISM Non-MFG do later today.  Non-MFG is forecast at a  robust 55.5, and in the likely event you don't know, makes up about 80% of our economy.


As far as the Federal Budget... As I mentioned last month when the latest numbers were available, we did indeed cross 1 trillion in deficits. But in gross dollars and as a percentage of GDP, it pales in comparison to Obama's 1st 4 years, even after adjusting for inflation. (Why do I suspect deficits didn't matter one little bit to you back then?) Also, revenue was up nearly 400 billion vs same time last year, so that belays any arguments against the tax cuts and revenue.  The spending is what really sux.  Also, September,  which will close out FY 19, is typicaly a revenue surplus month , so we've yet to see the final #'s.

But don't let me discourage you from posting. You're ALWAYS entertaining.

By gfn - Oct. 3, 2019, 9:29 a.m.
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Tim your claim that tax receipts are up 400 billion does not jive with the Congressional budget office who have yoy increase of 3% OR ABOUT 92 BILLION  with over half of that increase attributed to  smaller refunds and TARIFFS. 

Maybe you could tell us where you info comes from 

By TimNew - Oct. 3, 2019, 9:38 a.m.
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From that right wing site, Treasury.Gov.      But you know they spin everything. But you're right,  I somehow miscalculated.  We're closer to 104 billion increased revenue.  I'll sorta give you that one.  


By metmike - Oct. 3, 2019, 10:56 a.m.
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"I suppose I should figure out how to post link so I could ne like so many on here that post opinion pieces as facts  in hope of getting people to buy into their line of thought."


You have the record here for mischaracterizing statements and misinterpreting which is why I often question if you actually read my posts before you respond but, I think that you actually do and have already decided in your head what you will think before reading them.

For the umpteenth time, my requests for you to post sources and links is NOT for opinion posts but for data to support your posts/statements involving things like government statistics........which is what we like to see on the TRADING forum. 

Like Tim does.

If you are unable to do so for whatever reason, that's one thing but instead, pretending that I'm asking for something entirely different about opinions about a  belief system tells me that you continue to be  disengenous. 

It's ok for you to have the extreme political bias, I welcome well thought out political views(in the NTR section) but PLEASE try to use well defined and repeated(for you at least) protocol, which includes responding to the request in my posts, not the ones that you make up in your head......because of your challenge to view topics objectively. 

thanks in advance


By gfn - Oct. 3, 2019, 12:57 p.m.
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When the whistleblower story broke and you decided and posted the the whistleblower HATED TRUMP with out any facts, and even worse you did not only not know the whistleblower  as a person you didn't even know his/her  NAME.

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2019, 1:05 p.m.
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We separated the forum's because trading people and market focused mentalities were so turned off by the political hatred and battles......that you insist on inserting here up in the trading section.

This is the trading forum. 

You can't just come here and defy our rules with impunity and numerous warnings. This will be your last one. Next infraction and you spend time in the penalty box.

edit: Actually, I was being too generous in that statement above because you had already received similar warnings and not learned a lick but I gave you additional chances.

So I will give you another opportunity to indicate that you will start following the same rules as everybody else on the trading forum. 

If your response veers at all from that..........like justifying your behavior again, to be fair to others here, you will have to just be a reader, not a poster for awhile. 

By wglassfo - Oct. 3, 2019, 9:10 p.m.
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Hi cutworm

If you don't mind

What size of house is selling??, the average age of the buyer and what price/sq ft  does the average house sell for

 where is this market??

 Reason for location is type of building and insulation etc that is needed to comply with building code 

By cutworm - Oct. 3, 2019, 9:50 p.m.
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Hello Wayne

Cincinnati, northern Kentucky, and surrounding areas.$200,000 to $1,000,000 with a lot (most) in the $300,000 + range.