INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 3, 2019, 4:41 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, October 4, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -53.99B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 207.4B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 261.39B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +140K; previous +130K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.11)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.11)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.39%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.2%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +34K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +96K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7821.14 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7821.14. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.  



The December S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 2841.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's gap crossing at 2937.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's gap crossing at 2937.00. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2992.00. First support is today's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 2841.00.  



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it rebounded from two days of losses as investors bet that indications this week of a slowing economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for the third time this year at its late October meeting.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 25,339.60 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's gap crossing at 26,562.22 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is Wednesday's gap crossing at 26,562.22. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 27,046.21. First support is today's low crossing at 25,743.46. Second support is August's low crossing at 25,339.69.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed up 1-01/32's at 164-11.



December T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at 166-25. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 160-19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 160-19. Second support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 160-16. 



December T-notes closed up 180-pts. At 131.225.



December T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the September 13th reaction low, September's high crossing at 132.130 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 129.200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 131.310. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the September 13th reaction low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171.       



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed lower for the eighth-day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September''s high, August's low crossing at 50.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.56. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 63.89. First support is today's low crossing at 50.99. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.48.   



November heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 178.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.94. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. First support is today's low crossing at 182.39. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.  



November unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, September 12th low crossing at 149.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 159.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 163.35. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. First support is the September 12th reaction low crossing at 149.84. Second support is September's low crossing at 143.10.



November Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up on Thursday after falling short of testing the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.527 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.422. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.527. First support is today's low crossing at 2.207. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 99.30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.26.Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.84.



The December Euro closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If December resumes the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.56. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 109.38. Second support ismonthly support crossing at 109.21.



The December British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2424 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2008 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2592. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2241. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.    



The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0147 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0147. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0237. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.



The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 75.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.80 is the next upside target. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. First support is today's low crossing at 74.98. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84. 



The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is Tuesday's low crossing 0.0926. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1507.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80.First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-rally at 1426.60.



December silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.922 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.940. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-rally crossing at 16.547.



December copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 260.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 251.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.   



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up a 1/2-cent at 3.88 1/4. 



December corn posted an inside day with a fractionally higher close on Thursday as it consolidates below the August 12th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.   



December wheat closed down a 1/4-cent at 4.88 3/4. 



December wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the high of September's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at 4.05 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Thursday as it extends the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.05 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high  crossing at 4.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 5.29 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.59. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-Sept. decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 2-cents at 9.11 3/4.



November soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 9.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.97 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.89 3/4.    



December soybean meal closed down $2.40 at 303.20. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 316.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 309.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 316.80. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil closed up 64-pts. at 29.85. 



December soybean oil closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, September's high crossing at 30.41 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 28.75 are needed to renew the decline off September's high. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.94. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.       

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.23 at $62.43. 



October hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.27 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $0.75 at 106.80. 



October cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally above this year's downtrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.72 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the August 9th reaction high crossing at 107.85. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 110.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 103.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.72.  

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $0.28 at $142.35. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off September's low, the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 144.73. Second resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 148.23. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.17.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee posted a key reversal up on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 94.20 is the next downside target. 



December cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 25.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   



March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the July 30th reaction high crossing at 13.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   



December cotton closed higher on Thursday while extending the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 59.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.  

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 4, 2019, 12:36 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Weather not a big factor for grains. Much cooler and drying out which will help to accelerate harvest next week.

Continue to see only 1 minor rain event for Minas Gerais coffee crop(in the middle of next week) with the weather turning bullish.

Natural gas weather is not bullish but we had a short covering spike higher from being oversold and a decent shot of  seasonable cold next week in the Midwest.