Wage growth slowed a little in this months jobs report. No mystery and not bad news...
6 responses | 2 likes
Started by TimNew - Oct. 4, 2019, 2:29 p.m.

This is probably TR,  but seems the risk is high for it to swerve into NTR territory, sooo.

Wage growth "slowed" to 2.9% from 3.2 in the latest jobs report.   There are 2 main reasons for this, and neither is bad news.

1.) Baby boomers are retiring. These most experienced workers are naturally at a higher pay rate and for every 4 of them that retires,  5 lower paid workers have to fill their spots to offset the reduction in payroll.

2.) and more importantly, with the labor market tightening,  lower skilled workers are coming off the bench and being paid accordingly.  Far from bad news as we watch the unemployment rate drop to 50 year lows as the participation rate shows stable to moderate growth for the last couple of years.


By metmike - Oct. 4, 2019, 3:29 p.m.
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Thanks Tim!

This is clearly a trade related post. Shall I move it?

By TimNew - Oct. 4, 2019, 3:37 p.m.
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I don't see why not.

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2019, 6:24 p.m.
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Thanks for being so agreeable and for  all of your positive contributions Tim!

By 7475 - Oct. 4, 2019, 6:49 p.m.
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Lets give this man a "LIKE"

By joj - Oct. 4, 2019, 10:26 p.m.
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5 year looks sideways to me:


My view is that AI is replacing workers and the participation rate will continue it's decades long downward trend.

(The time frames I mentioned can be obtained by clicking on "max" or "5 year" to see them).

By TimNew - Oct. 5, 2019, 7:29 a.m.
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Demographics and demand are changing.  Technology is a real challenge for low skilled workers.  I'll save the minimum wage debate for another time.  The fact remains that we are a few tenths higher in participation than we were at the highest point of 2016.  We had a precipitous drop following the tech revolution of the 90's excarcerbated by the recession.  In spite of the mass exodus of baby boomers, the trend is moderate growth for te last few years.