KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, December 22, 2017
8:30 AM ET. November Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.0%; previous -1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. November Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.6%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.0; previous 98.5)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.5)
10:00 AM ET. November Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. November New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 650K; previous 685K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -5.1%; previous +6.2%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.9)
11:00 AM ET. Dec. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 15)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 40)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 16)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 27)
Monday, December 25, 2017
N/A U.S.: Christmas Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Christmas Day
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends this year's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6406.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6545.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6406.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday and is poised to extend this year's rally into record territory. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2652.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2697.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2674.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2652.16.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 12th gap crossing at 24,389.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 24,876.07. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,605.97. Second support is the December 12th gap crossing at 24,389.72.
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March T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 151-01.
March T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 149-07 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 154-21. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 150-18. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes closed up 20/32's at 123-165.
March T-notes closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.172 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.172. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 123.125. First support is today's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
January crude oil closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past two-months.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 57.05 or below November's low crossing at 55.00 are needed to confirm a breakout of the November-December trading range. First resistance is November's high crossing at 57.05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 60.00. First support is November's low crossing at 55.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 53.04.
January heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 185.97 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 198.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 216.85. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 185.45.
January unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 175.89 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 185.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 175.89. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 202.82. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 164.38. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-November-rally crossing at 160.49.
January Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 2.522 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.845 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.778. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.845. First support is today's low crossing at 2.568. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.522.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off last week's, the reaction low crossing at 92.69 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 93.83 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 94.23. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 94.76. First support is the reaction low crossing at 92.69. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 92.23.
The March Euro posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past six-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 120.44 or below the reaction low crossing at 117.97 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range while pointing the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is November's high crossing at 120.44. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 121.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 117.97. Second support is November's low crossing at 116.48.
The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3328 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3695 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3598. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3328. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3273.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 1.0062 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 1.0412. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0103. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0064.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.31 or below October's low crossing at 77.54 are needed to confirm a breakout of the October-December trading range. First resistance is the reaction crossing at 79.31. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is October's low crossing at 77.54. Second support is the July's low crossing at 77.16.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8783 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 0.9073 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
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February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher price are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1269.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1271.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1279.30. First support is December's low crossing at 1238.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 1233.90.
March silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.255 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, July's low crossing at 15.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.255. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.783. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-rally crossing at 15.626. Second support is July's low crossing at 15.225.
March copper closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 327.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 321.30. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.17. Second support is December's low crossing at 294.30.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 1 3/4-cents at 3.51.
March corn closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.56 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.69 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.27.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.60 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 4.24 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.35 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, psychological support crossing at 4.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.35 3/4. Second resistance is reaction high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down a 3/4-cents at 6.17.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.30 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.29 3/4. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down 6 1/4-cents at 9.47 3/4.
January soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 9.40 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 10.15. First support is September's low crossing at 9.47 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 9.40 3/4.
January soybean meal closed down $1.90 at 313.80.
January soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 311.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.00 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 327.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 348.20. First support is today's low crossing at 313.80. Second support is November's low crossing at 311.60.
January soybean oil closed down 33 pts. At 32.63.
January soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 32.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.08. First support is October's low crossing at 32.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 32.05.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.20 at $68.58.
February hogs closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.16. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 72.25. First support is November's low crossing at 66.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 65.43.
February cattle closed up $0.73 at 119.68.
February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.15 at $142.93.
January Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.34. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 140.97. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-October-rally crossing at 138.56.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.46 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, April's low crossing at 18.27 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.51 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 13.50 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.80 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.