KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
6:00 AM ET. September NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 103.1)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +5.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. September PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 50.8)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 43.0)
4:00 PM ET. World Development Report launch
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 553.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +8.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 263.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2202.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +14.2%)
10:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters published
10:00 AM ET. September Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. August Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 422.642M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.104M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 229.976M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.228M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 131.267M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.418M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.751M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.43M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
Thursday, October 10, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims Jobless Claims 219K
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1651000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
8:30 AM ET. September Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. September CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.9%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 565.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2076.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 328.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. IMF Global Financial Stability Report analytical chapters published
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3317B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +112B)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. September Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, October 11, 2019
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.5%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -4.8%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 92.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 82.4)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 106.9
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading and are poised to drift for a second day in a row as investors focus on trade talks between the U.S. and China as it unclear that a grand resolution can be achieved soon.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7803.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7803.96. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. First support is the August 26th reaction low crossing at 7390.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 7244.50.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The lower-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2973.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 2830.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2973.96. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2992.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 2830.60.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 166-25 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 160-19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 165-07. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 160-19. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.
December T-notes were higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 132.130 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 129.200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 132.010. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 129.200. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 50.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 54.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.84. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 50.99. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.48.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 178.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.49. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 209.35. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 182.39. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off September's high, the September 12th low crossing at 149.84 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 27th high crossing at 168.24. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 168.24. First support is the September 12th low crossing at 149.84. Second support is September's low crossing at 143.10.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.485 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off September's high, the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.355. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.485. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.207. Second support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 99.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.91.
The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight and poised to extend the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.42. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 109.39. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 1.2008 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2413 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2413. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2595. Third resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2239. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0137 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0137. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0232. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly low overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.98. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0952. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0927. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.883 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 260.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 248.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 251.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.76 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 13th gap crossing at 3.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.76 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.52 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off September's low. First resistance is August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 5.43. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/2. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.76 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-3/4 cents at 4.02 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the August-October trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.00 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 4.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 4.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.00 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.97 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9.21 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.05 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.97 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 313.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 308.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 313.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.60. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 30.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 30.19. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.
Thanks very much tallpine!
Big USDA crop report coming up on Thursday.
Snow storm, then cold shot in the Northcentral US.