USDA Crop Production report Oct. 10, 2019
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Started by metmike - Oct. 9, 2019, 12:09 a.m.

Trade estimates for U.S. #corn and #soybeans for Thursday's USDA report. Yields and production are seen dropping, but the range of trade guesses on both are historically narrow. Does that mean analysts are settled on general crop size? Or are they too shy to stick their neck out?

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@kannbwx

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By metmike - Oct. 9, 2019, 12:12 a.m.
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@kannbwx

In the last 25 years, there were only FOUR times that USDA's October #corn yield was 2 bu/acre or more BELOW the September figure: 2010: -6.7 bpa 2000: -2.2 bpa 1995: -4.5 bpa 1993: -2.8 bpa USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 168.2 bpa in September.

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Reminder, USDA/NASS does NOT "lower" or "raise" yields. Each month's yield estimate is a new, independent assessment.


·The last time October yield for U.S. #soybeans has been more than 1 bpa lower than in September: 2003 (-2.4 bpa) But that was the aphid year, so perhaps an outlier. The time before that was 1998 (-1.9 bpa). #AGTRIVIA

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
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Bearish corn Bullish Beans!


Karen Braun@kannbwx

U.S. production is lower than in September, but by less than expected for #corn and more than expected for #soybeans.

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 4:49 p.m.
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USDA pegged 2019/20 U.S. ending stocks for #soybeans at 460 million bushels, below last month's 640 mbu. Back in June, carryout was estimated at 1.045 bln bu. I think it is safe to say NO ONE would have called this just a few months ago, certainly not a year ago.

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 4:50 p.m.
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Pod counts on #soybeans increased from September, implying a large decrease in pod weights. It is a similar trend that has been observed in recent years, per the chart. Soybean yield came in at 46.9 bu/acre, down from last month's 47.9.

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 4:51 p.m.
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From the USDA/NASS executive briefing: Ear counts on U.S. #corn fall slightly from September, but that slightly increases implied ear weight. Yield came in at 168.4 bu/acre, just above last month's 168.2.

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 4:58 p.m.
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USDA also reduced harvested area for #soybeans, but no changes were made in the top states. Planted area comes in at 76.457 million acres (was 76.7 mln previously).

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USDA reduced U.S. #corn harvested acres fractionally to 81.815 million acres. About 2% came off in Illinois and South Dakota. The planted area number also fell slightly to 89.942 million acres (was 90 mln).

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U.S. yield for #soybeans came in at 46.9 bu/acre, 1 bpa lower than in Sept. and lower than the trade was expecting. Most of the top states observed some light trims. Kentucky and Tennessee lost their record-expecting status, but Pennsylvania gained it.

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U.S. #corn yield came in at 168.4 bu/acre, slightly above last month's estimate. Here's a look at the state-by-state yields. Most of the top states saw some light adjustments, heavier changes in Missouri, Michigan.

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By metmike - Oct. 10, 2019, 5:02 p.m.
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USDA cut 2019/20 world stocks for #corn and #soybeans, but increased the supply of #wheat.

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@kannbwx


USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. #corn and #soybeans, but makes an increase for #wheat. The soybean number is much lower than the trade expected but the corn number is higher.

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