In the last 25 years, there were only FOUR times that USDA's October #corn yield was 2 bu/acre or more BELOW the September figure: 2010: -6.7 bpa 2000: -2.2 bpa 1995: -4.5 bpa 1993: -2.8 bpa USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 168.2 bpa in September.
·The last time October yield for U.S. #soybeans has been more than 1 bpa lower than in September: 2003 (-2.4 bpa) But that was the aphid year, so perhaps an outlier. The time before that was 1998 (-1.9 bpa). #AGTRIVIA
USDA pegged 2019/20 U.S. ending stocks for #soybeans at 460 million bushels, below last month's 640 mbu. Back in June, carryout was estimated at 1.045 bln bu. I think it is safe to say NO ONE would have called this just a few months ago, certainly not a year ago.
Pod counts on #soybeans increased from September, implying a large decrease in pod weights. It is a similar trend that has been observed in recent years, per the chart. Soybean yield came in at 46.9 bu/acre, down from last month's 47.9.
From the USDA/NASS executive briefing: Ear counts on U.S. #corn fall slightly from September, but that slightly increases implied ear weight. Yield came in at 168.4 bu/acre, just above last month's 168.2.
USDA also reduced harvested area for #soybeans, but no changes were made in the top states. Planted area comes in at 76.457 million acres (was 76.7 mln previously).
USDA reduced U.S. #corn harvested acres fractionally to 81.815 million acres. About 2% came off in Illinois and South Dakota. The planted area number also fell slightly to 89.942 million acres (was 90 mln).
U.S. yield for #soybeans came in at 46.9 bu/acre, 1 bpa lower than in Sept. and lower than the trade was expecting. Most of the top states observed some light trims. Kentucky and Tennessee lost their record-expecting status, but Pennsylvania gained it.
U.S. #corn yield came in at 168.4 bu/acre, slightly above last month's estimate. Here's a look at the state-by-state yields. Most of the top states saw some light adjustments, heavier changes in Missouri, Michigan.