Just FWIW
I had said all summer our Ontario bean crop would be very poor [less than 40 bu average] mostly due to June planting and some very late June planting
Well we got started yesterday, we have had no rain until it was to late
So any way
We are in the 40 plus bu/acre with all beans planted mid to late June
moisture 13% or a tad over
Our beans don't look a bit better than most so I guess I was wrong, so far
If others are the same as our beans then I was low by 10 bu/acre
How a bean plant no more than 18" tall can yield 40 plus is beyod me. Golly we might even have places in the field 24" tall
Wayne,
Alot of better than expected yields for beans in recent years because of the increase in entirely beneficial CO2.
The combination of higher CO2 and the best weather for growing crop in the last 1,000 years is responsible for at least 25% of this almost doubling of yields on the graph below.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/soyyld.php
There obviously are other contributing factors with genetics and farming technology (+75%) but the +CO2 and weather(+25%) have been a big plus.
With Corn, it's a different picture because of the introduction of nitrogen fertilizer causing corn yields to triple real fast and not as much to do with CO2 or weather during that initial tripling. However, recent decades have featured a steady increase, along with a steady increase in CO2 and beneficial weather.
http://crazyeddiethemotie.blogspot.com/2014/10/corn-questions-from-food-inc-worksheet.html
https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/yieldtrends.html
This year, we finished the filling period hot and dry in the southeast and east belt. This hurt yields quite a bit. Look for the usda to make additional cuts on the next crop report.
This last one was extremely bullish. Just 4 months ago ending stocks were projected to be above 1 billion and now that number is down to 460 million!!
China is buying massive amounts. The price of US beans had dropped almost a dollar cheaper than brazil beans and this helped.
I think we are close to their price now,
Was surprised beans sold off after the report after spiking higher onThursday.
We bounced back from the open on Thursday Night and are close to those highs 934 tonight.
The trade tonight has been a steady March higher to +10c without any corrections.
Sustained hitting the offers and a slow grind upwards.
We’ve stalled out at the post report spike higher, highs but still holding all the gains so at the moment, nobody wants to sell, unless they can do it up around these highs.
Could not get thru those highs so far pretty tough resistance
Looks like you were up all night ! We haven't started bean harvest yet. They are dropping leaves, so hopefully it won't be long. Our driest corn is still around 30%. I'm long a few March beans in my spec account.
Thanks bowyer!
It's hard not to be bullish the grains here. I covered and got some sleep though.
Trading the markets are wacky sometimes.
After the USDA report we spiked higher, then sold off and the corn REALLY sold off as I guess the funds decided thats what they wanted to do.
From the get go last night, everybody else decided to do the exact opposite, including me.................a sustained up.
Today, the funds have changed their minds on the corn and are buying now, completely reversing yesterdays losses and then some.
Beans have not been able to take out the highs......yet.
Seems like some pretty good resistance up there and I'm flat at the moment and usually don't trade grains at this time of year anyway.
Let us know how your yields turn out!
On the corn, it looks like all we've done is retest the area of trading just before the bearish USDA report.
I really have no idea where the price is going at this point today but overnight, I was thinking the beans could break thru yesterday's highs based on how one sided the price action was last night.
The massive drop in USDA estimated stocks for 2018/19 over the past 4 months must be close to unprecedented.
A cut of over 500 mb!
Maybe part of the current spike higher is tied to this cold and huge snowstorm and since thats dialed in, we can justify a price correction but no way would I short beans for any reason.
Just to be objective..........this time of year, harvest pressure can cause downwards spikes and if the weather is more favorable next week this is possible.
About 45 minutes before the close, and grains appear to be trading near their weekly high.. POSSIBLE gap and go Sunday night?
Thanks tjc!
I suppose if the week 2 part of the forecast turned extremely wet over the weekend, the weather might become more bullish or China news might be bullish but thats just speculating.
Anytime you have a strong move up, the market tends to close near the highs and the next open has a potential gap higher.
The additional factor here is that its a weekend and more time between the close and open...............and we are also near the highs of the week as you astutely noted.
I'll be flat on the close.
As a farmer, I always want to be bullish, but that doesn't always work out ! I've started to slowly hedge 2020 corn. I love to sell rallies and hope all my future sales are at a higher price. Sold about 2% this morning at 4.10 CZ20. Still have a lot of 2019 corn and all my beans to price
This pic and more are from the NWS Bismarck FB page...looks like soy harvest there will be a no go after the recent heavy snowfall event.
Dang that global warming (-:
A season of extremes to be sure.
NOPA Crush
152.566 mln bu of #soybeans Below trade guess (162.193 mbu)
Soyoil stocks 1.442 bln lbs (first rise in 5 months)Trade guess stocks = 1.32 bln lbs.
Highest monthly oil yield since July 2014
