KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 2.0)
Employment Idx (previous 9.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.5)
Prices Received (previous 9.2)
8:45 AM ET. G24 Committee of the Whole meeting
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
N/A U.S. increases tariffs on Chinese products
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 582.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 261.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2418.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +9.8%)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. October NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 68; previous 68)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
4:00 PM ET. August Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.0M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 8002.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7743.57 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8071.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 7583.25. Second support is October's low crossing at 7474.25.
The December S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3025.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2883.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2992.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3025.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2883.90. Second support is the October 3rd low crossing at 2856.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 163-06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 160-02. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.
December T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 131.026 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is the October 1st low crossing at 129.200. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 50.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.26. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 59.49. First support is the October 3rd low crossing at 50.99. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.48.
November heating oil gapped down and was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If November extends the rally off October's low, the September 19th high crossing at 202.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 197.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 202.23. First support is the October 3rd low crossing at 182.39. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.06.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off October's low, the September 19th high crossing at 168.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 155.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 168.24. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 175.26. First support is October's low crossing at 151.75. Second support is the September 12th low crossing at 149.84.
November Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight. However, the low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 2.135 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 2.402 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.375. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.402. First support is the August 23rd low crossing at 2.185. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.135.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.02 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October 1st high crossing at 99.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.02. Second support is September's low crossing at 97.56.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.28 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 109.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.28. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 111.84. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 109.93. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.39.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-week's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2329 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2776. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2224. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0150 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0150. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0219. First support is October's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0000.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 76.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.96. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 74.96. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 0.0919 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0924. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.0919.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight while extending the August-October trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 18.000 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 254.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight over concerns as to the strength of an agreement discussed between the U.S. and China last week after a report that Beijing will insist on more talks with the U.S. before signing any such deal. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.21 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.90 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.21 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.90 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.82 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 4.25 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday breaking out to the topside of the August-October trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.98 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.36 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.98 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9.45 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 314.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 306.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.80.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 30.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.19. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 30.41. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 28.75. Second support is September's low crossing at 28.20.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $0.15 at $63.08.
October hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October renews the decline off July's high, last-July's low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.73. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $1.18 at 110.63.
October cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 114.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.85 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 110.82. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 114.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 107.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.85.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.45 at $145.55.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but has turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 146.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 149.37. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 87.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.86 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 26.06 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 23.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton posted a downside reversal on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.05 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
The weather looks bearish the grains with dry weather the next several days, increasing rains over the weekend/early next week.........then dry again but chilly.
Chilly for natural gas is bullish but fundamentals/supplies are bearish.
Coffee: A bit more rain today, so more bearish.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/41039/