Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which has a pretty good record, has just issued a new forecast for 2018. It is one of the quietest late May/early June forecasts they've had since they started doing these for 1999. It is comparable to the pretty quiet forecasts made for 2000, 2002, and 2015. It is quieter than 2009. This latest forecast can be seen by clicking on the top link here:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com
Hopefully, this will mean Silverspiker and others will get a respite this season and not have anything like the horrible 2017 season to deal with...hopefully.
Wow! Only 50% of the normal because of cool waters in the tropical North Atlantic:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
They are predicting only one TS and no H to landfall in the Lesser Antilles or 1/0/0. They could sure use a break. Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995. With the Caribbean predicted to have the highest pressures relative to normal by the Eurosip ensemble for August-October, I could see a 1/0/0 occurring there in 2018:
