KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 24, 2019
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -0.8%; previous +0.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1679000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous (previous -10K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 368.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1601.0K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 395.1K)
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 50.7; previous 51.0)
9:45 AM ET. October US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 50.8; previous 50.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. September New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 709K; previous 713K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous +7.1%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3519B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +104B)
11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 11)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 5)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -2)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 5)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, October 25, 2019
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 96.0; previous 93.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 83.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.4%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 108.5)
Monday, October 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.10)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.06)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:30 AM ET. October Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 1.5)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.9)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading. Microsoft stock rose modestly before the open. Tesla stock rose sharply from long-term support on surprise earnings and upbeat guidance. Lam Research stock, Edwards Lifesciences stock, O'Reilly stock, MagnaChip stock and MKS stock also made strong gains, which underpinned overnight gains. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7783.77 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 8071.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 8002.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8071.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7783.77. Second support is the October 10th low crossing at 7583.25.
The December S&P 500 gapped up and was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3025.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2955.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3014.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3025.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2955.32. Second support is the October 10th low crossing at 2883.90. Third support is the October 3rd low crossing at 2856.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 166-25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 159-02. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.
December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.199 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 132.130. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129.150. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.77 would temper the the bullish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 59.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.77. Second support is the October 3rd low crossing at 50.99.
December heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 190.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 195.50. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the October 3rd low crossing at 181.51. Second support is September's low crossing at 178.25.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 19th high crossing at 164.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 154.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 164.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 154.18. Second support is October's low crossing at 146.82.
December Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 2.339 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.561 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.561. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 2.762. First support is the October 11th low crossing at 2.388. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.339.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.11. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.78.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2597 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2864. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2597.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0116 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the September 24th high crossing at 1.0230 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0205. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 1.0230. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.56. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.70.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 0.0919 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0936. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0921. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.0919.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight while extending the August-October trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was steady to lower overnight as it extends October's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 9th high crossing at 18.000 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target.First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 257.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 257.30. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight.The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.89 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.89 1/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.
December wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 4.23 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday following Monday's key reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.81.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 5.79. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 5.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.23 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.45 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.94 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 300.80.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 30.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.43.
thanks tallpine!
Major cold next week but not doesn't look like much snow.
A big snow storm would be bullish for grain prices.
Cold is bullish natural gas with some models being colder but moderation expected in November.