Cotton
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Started by metmike - May 30, 2018, 11:40 a.m.

2018 Cotton Contracts Soar To 90 Cents

https://www.agweb.com/article/2018-cotton-contracts-soar-to-90-cents/

"The cotton futures market jumped limit up during Tuesday’s trading session with December cotton trading above 90 cents.

Cotton has been on a steady climb since last October following harvest and quality challenges. Since mid-May, the prices have spiked nearly 11 cents per pound. Last week, the cotton adjusted world price it its highest mark since 2012."




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Re: Cotton
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By WxFollower - June 4, 2018, 2:49 p.m.
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06/04 02:45a CST  DJ U.S. Southwest Cotton Weather - Jun 4 
 
  
West Texas highlights...  
  
    Dry conditions. Temperatures much above normal Friday with highs of 101-107  
f, near to above normal Saturday with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s f.  
  
West Texas forecast  
  
    Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days except for the chance of a few  
light showers on Monday. Temperatures above to much above normal through  
Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above to much above normal  
Monday-Thursday.  
WORLD COTTON PROSPECTS  
  
     Rain is needed to support dryland cotton planting in west Texas. There is  
no significant rainfall in sight along with episodes of much above normal  
temperatures.  
    Favorable conditions for developing cotton in the Delta states. Drier  
weather would benefit planting and development in the Southeast states. 

 All of the above is from DJ newswires this morning. CT is up ~10 cents vs mid-May and a lot of this may be due largely to the W TX CT planting being hurt by drought/heat and the GA CT planting being delayed a very wet last half of May. 


 DEC CT was down today about a penny, however. Part of the reason cited was unexpectedly heavy overnight W TX rains.

Re: Re: Cotton
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By metmike - June 4, 2018, 5:40 p.m.
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Larry,

 A potential weather pattern change in the middle of June is also part of the reason. Could be the first good chance of rain in a very long time for many places and the record heat may lessen. 

A dome of death has been parked over the far Southern Plains to SW US for weeks. This weaken or change. 


Crop ratings were pretty bad for cotton. Not sure what was expected. See the post on the crop ratings for more. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php


By metmike - June 4, 2018, 5:49 p.m.
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In looking at the cotton charts, maybe the top is in.

By metmike - June 5, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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Cotton was especially weak overnight and is still down 1c but December(which is the new crop that I watch) held support at 89c. 

If the weather in TX breaks(dome goes away) the highs are in. Week 2 models feature a pattern change that might allow this to happen.

By WxFollower - June 5, 2018, 5:18 p.m.
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   Cotton Ends Lower a Second Day 
 
   July cotton fell 2.26 cents to 89.84 cents Tuesday, finishing a second day  
lower after last week's Alberto-inspired rally took prices to a peak of 96.40  
on Wednesday. Prices eased with beneficial showers in the seven-day forecast.  
 
By Todd Hultman 
DTN Analyst 
 
   July cotton prices closed down 2.26 cents and the December contract was down  
1.96 cents, both falling a second day in the aftermath of last week's  
Alberto-inspired rally. The seven-day forecast looks helpful to cotton crops  
here in the U.S. with rain expected near the Mississippi Delta and across the  
southeastern U.S. Meanwhile, west Texas continues to deal with drought and is  
only expecting light rain amounts.  
 
   Considering the drought in Texas, the U.S. cotton crop appears to be doing  
fairly well, so far. Late Monday, USDA said 76% of the cotton was planted, and  
9% of it was squaring, near its usual paces. 42% of crops were rated  
good-to-excellent which is down from 61% a year ago. 22% of crops in Texas were  
rated poor and only 1% as very poor.
By metmike - June 5, 2018, 5:37 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

Keep this good stuff coming!


Even though I think they missed the boat on the main reason for cotton's weakness.........the pattern change in week 2 that shows the mega dome breaking down over cotton country.

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 6, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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Cotton up sharply again today. Less rain chance in the extended?


Extraordinarily volatile price action.  High of 91.07 basis December, which was up over 2c. Limit is 3c.

Now +1.76 at 90.74

By metmike - June 6, 2018, 11:46 a.m.
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DTN Cotton Open: Bounces Back Early


https://agfax.com/2018/06/06/dtn-cotton-open-bounces-back-early/


Since that report/story, cotton has shown lots of strength. 

By metmike - June 7, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Cotton showing strength in early trading Thursday.

DTN Cotton Open: Slightly Higher Early


https://agfax.com/2018/06/07/dtn-cotton-open-slightly-higher-early/


"Technically, the trend in December cotton remains up, but it is fair to wonder if last week’s high of 93 cents could hold as resistance as it is very close to its five-year high and speculators are 90% long."

By metmike - June 7, 2018, 4:41 p.m.
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From tjc earlier today:

 "Cotton is currently is in a volatile weather market.  MetMike has (strongly) hinted that a dome may re-initiate over cotton country.
   What might the cotton cycle suggest?

   CT had a daily reversal on Wed 6-6, 22 days from its last daily cycle and in conformance with its 'normal' daily time frame.  Said date was also 9 weeks from its last Primary Low, thus could qualify for a half primary low.  Since each half primary normally consists of two 2-7 weeks (up/down), CT should 'enjoy' several weeks up to a new yearly HIGH.
   Thoughts/observations:
 1.  Expect the next daily cycle low June 26-28.
 2.  July options expire Friday June 15, which could correspond to a daily high within      this current daily cycle.
 3.  July futures expire July 9, which could correspond to a contract "expiring on its HIGH" in the fifth week after the half primary low, a normal time frame for a half primary high.
 4.  Daily 14RSI is elevated (60 Wednesday), but has been to 74.
 5.  My target for next week is 98ish
 6.  Bot a 90 July call wed morn"

Re: Cotton
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By WxFollower - June 7, 2018, 5:04 p.m.
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DTN Closing Cotton            06/07 14:50 
 
   Cotton Regathers Steam, Finishes Higher 
 
   December cotton pushed higher for a second day on Thursday, finishing up  
2.24 cents at 92.79, as hot temperatures continue to cover west Texas.  
 
By Todd Hultman 
DTN Analyst 
 
   December cotton prices closed up 2.24 cents at 92.79 Thursday, fighting back  
from earlier losses this week and overcoming Thursday's report of low export  
sales to finish back near its contract high. Hot temperatures in west Texas  
continue to help support prices while the seven-day forecast expects moderate  
rains to help crops across the Southeastern U.S.  
Re: Re: Cotton
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By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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Cotton off to the races again on Friday. 


DTN Cotton Open: Breaks New High Ground

 

Posted on
 By Todd Hultman DTN Analyst 

https://agfax.com/2018/06/08/dtn-cotton-open-breaks-new-high-ground/

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 11:47 a.m.
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Historical perspective on cotton going back to different time frames.


 3 month

                   


 1 year below                

                   


5 year below

                   


10 year below

                   
By silverspiker - June 8, 2018, 1:20 p.m.
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... I remember some private e-mails back and forth, chatting with Alex that the high of the marketing year of 2017 would be in the next 3 sessions after his passing , God bless his soul. Many thanks to TJC for bringing up the Cotton market into the limelight again. 

I still use 45- minute charts (ONLY IN COTTON, since 45 minutes exactly fits the session )... 

I find  the "TIME" for making  entries and exits in the Cotton markets off of 45 Degree trend lines based from Point & Figure Charts...( 45 Degree angles are utilized for when Time & Price are in a 1/1 ratio-unison ... time equalling price and vice versa equals ...

"GO TIME"